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Friday, 31 October 2008

Rolling Election Results Update (4)

The fourth set of election results have been announced by Justice Mumba bringing the total of announced constituents to around 93 /150 (i think) . The latest update covers the following constituencies:

Lufwanyama
Mpongwe
Vubwi
Chipangali
Lubangeni
Siinda
Lumezi
Malambo
Mambilima
Mwense
Kafue
Rufunsa
Chinsali
Shiwangandu
Munkoyo
Isoka West
Nakonde
Kasama Central
Lukasha
Lubanseshi
Mpulungu
Mfuwe
Mpika
Mporokoso
Kasempa
Zambezi East
Kalomo
Katombora
Livingstone
Bwengwa
Moomba
Namwala
Munkoyo
Kaoma
Mongu Central

These new results bring the total to the following (the nearest hundred):

Sata (Pf) = 518,500
RB (MMD) = 469,800
HH (UPND) = 259,900
GM (HP) = 10,000

I'll link the ECZ website when their detailed results are in. You might also want to know which constituencies are currently "officially" unannounced by playing around with the Zambia Electoral Map
here and comparing them with the updates on this blog.

The race is certainly narrowing, but these new sets of results appear to show the opposition have competed okay in previously uncharted waters.

9 comments:

  1. If Sata loses , he gave it away in nort-western.

    In Kasempa he got less than 1% of the vote!!! (S: 52 ; B: 5367 ; H 1556 ; M: 386).

    Mostly it's around 3% (with the exeption of the urban part of Solwezi +- 16%).

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  2. Take into account that the western provincie is mostly unannounced. there Sata is expected to get around 10-15%. Problem for Sata: HH isn't performing there at all.

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  3. Here the Sata path to the Presidency.

    If Sata has 80 - 90k advantage as suggested by other sources, with only 50 constituencies left, he probably only needs to win 10 - 15 constituencies by modest margins.

    I arrive at that by assuming that 80 - 90 k gives him around 20 constituency advantage if the winning marging for RB is around 4,000 which is likely to be the case for low voter turnout in remote areas. That leaves 30. If PF can win 15 of those its game set presidency.

    Lots of ifs there....

    At the moment there appear to be confusion at MICC....with people saying MMD have gone on TV claiming they are leading and pre-empting outcomes..

    There's also talk of VJ being in Northern and Luapula Province, where some results are still be expected.

    Its crazy..

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  4. If VJ is there, it's trouble. I wonder how a convicted drug dealer is still a major political force in Zambia.

    My sources are all in the Copperbelt; it's Sata-land there. So i don't have news. lol.

    But HH underperforming could cost Sata the presidency.

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  5. Its a difficult this one...

    I have always told people we confuse VOTE rigging with ELECTORAL PROCESS rigging..

    I think ECZ prevented vote rigging this time in urban areas, but in rural areas where opposition parties are not dominant (the MMD has the reach and resources to be everywhere, they are where government is)....VOTE rigging definitely took place...

    ELECTORAL PROCESS rigging is ultimately what determins results though...how you prevent people seeing information first, or access to travel to places and verify for themselves...or access to the media....or how the government can use its vehicles to transport supporters etc....



    Anyway...back to HH....I think he has done okay in Central Province...but you are right..

    We have to ask ourselves...should it not now be time for HH to disband the party and look to start afresh...with other "centralists"?

    Also Miyanda is a puzzle....why waste money when you have no chance of winning? I just don't get his strategy at all...

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  6. Miyanda's strategy isn't strange at all. He tries to show he has some kind of base which he can turn later into political capital...

    Many people who got 1% in the presidential elections in the DRC are holding key positions in the majority or opposition now.

    He probably gambles on the fact that he can give credibility to one of the other candidates government. Esp if he wouldve gotten 3-4%.

    Well I don't believe in conventional vote rigging with this system. Even in true rural areas it's difficult to do. Besides bribing a chief is a cleaner way of operating.

    Im really disappointed by HH. This guy has been campaigning for 2 years now!!! And he'll probably slip under 20% when all votes are in.

    Well people need to get over the fact he's Tonga. I guess being Tonga in Zambia is being black in the USA. lol.

    He couldve been the zambian Moise Katumbi.

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  7. My guess is that alot of people that aint tribal are avoinding a tribalist government. And Zambia should never be governed on tribal lines, otherwise we would have failed our democracy.

    Certain individuals in higher positions, be it corporate or institutional settings have abused their authority by having a majority of their tribesmen in the system as students or key employees. Zambians knowingly, are avoiding a government that would be viewed as coming from one end of the country and not embracing the other tribes. This should not only be viewed as a Tonga issue, because i am half tonga; hence it appeals to every party that would be viewed as belonging to one group. Perhaps HH should re-group, address the notion that Zambians have that UPND is tonga. He has fresh ideas and Zambians would have voted for him in 2006, but just because of that issue, people are hesistant. Just look at the votes in the southern province evidentally.

    Concerned Zambian living in the USA.

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  8. As of this comment, 98/150 constituencies, as reported by zambiaelections.org:

    PF 549,198 43%
    MMD 465,859 36%
    UPND 255,104 20%
    HP 10,831 1%
    Void 3,767 0%

    Current Margin: 83,339 (PF-MMD)
    Total: 1,284,759
    Est Reg Voters: 3,900,000
    % Counted: 32.943%

    Remaining Votes @40% Turnout: 275,223
    PF needs 95,943 or 34.860% to hold margin.

    Remaining Votes @45% Turnout: 470,223
    PF needs 193,443 or 41.138% to hold margin.

    Remaining Votes @50% Turnout: 665,223
    PF needs 290,943 or 43.736% to hold margin.

    Remaining Votes @55% Turnout: 860,223
    PF needs 388,443 or 45.156% to hold margin.

    Remaining Votes @60% Turnout: 1,055,223
    PF needs 485,943 or 46.051% to hold margin.

    Both the size and ideology of voter turnout in unreported constituencies are important, but as these sample figures show, the path for PF is certainly less steep if low turnout persists. If MMD can bring big numbers or big percentages, they can still pull this one out. Sometimes slow reporting is linked to high turnout and vice versa. We shall see, but still too close to call by far.

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  9. Vote rigging wil never end in zambia and we will remain in poverty for the rest of our lives as long as MMD is in power.

    ReplyDelete

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