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Saturday, 1 November 2008

Rolling Election Results Update (6)

The sixth set of election results have been announced by Justice Mumba bringing the total of officially announced constituencies to around 128 (out of 150).

Detailed constituencies later, but straight to the total:

Sata (PF) : 650, 605
RB (MMD) : 615, 241
HH (UPND) : 289,305
GM (HP) : 11, 753

The Pf maintains around 35k votes, or what I see as equivalent to "5 - 7" rural constituency advantage.

Next update 15:00hrs (Zambian Time).

The "unofficial results" by
Zambia Election 2008 has 129 constituencies reporting, with 77% "verified".

PF : 663,293
MMD : 608,469
UPND : 297,311
HP : 11,659
Void : 17,636

This gives the Pf a slighter bigger lead around 55k, or what I see as 12 - 15 rural constituency advantage. Or rather Pf can afford to lose next 12 - 15 within the average margin of 4000. Under this scenario, Pf may need to win atleast 10 or so remaining constituencies for them to win the vote, assuming they get no "help" from UPND, which has continued its poor performance outside southern province.


  1. But the rural seats have witnessed a low turnout. MMD is polling around 4000 in these seats. I think PF will scrap through.
    MMD have been shaken. Having spent so much public resources and they're depending on Shangombo to win the presidency!
    The PANEL

  2. There are about 200k votes left to count if the average turnout applies to the uncounted votes. These are rural votes who voted MMD the last election. This ain't over by a long stretch. I just dread the day that dictator, Sata, becomes Zambian president. Zambia cannot afford that

  3. Totals (137/150 Constituencies)

    PF 670,904 40%
    MMD 653,877 39%
    UPND 305,263 18%
    HP 11,934 1%
    Void 18,730 1%
    Percentage of results verified: 79%

  4. Could turn out to be like the 2000 U.S. election, with election officials counting hanging chads.

  5. Totals (138/150 Constituencies)

    PF 672,341 40%
    MMD 658,105 39%
    UPND 305,519 18%
    HP 11,966 1%
    Void 20,376 1%
    Percentage of results verified: 90%

  6. Totals (138/150 Constituencies)

    PF 672,893 40%
    MMD 660,529 39%
    UPND 306,093 18%
    HP 12,008 1%
    Void 20,769 1%
    Percentage of results verified: 93%

  7. Totals (144/150 Constituencies)

    PF 679,082 39%
    MMD 688,190 40%
    UPND 323,409 19%
    HP 12,640 1%
    Void 21,725 1%
    Percentage of results verified: 95%


  8. The cobra's head is crushed! Confined to the dustbin of political opportunism!

  9. ba sata kuya bebele

  10. With 144/150 I'm getting from RAW constituency counts:

    MMD 684,137 (40.1%)
    PF 673,350 (39.5%)
    UNIP 320,502 (18.8%
    from 1,705,781

    This seems to track the above reports pretty closely.
    The remaining constituencies favor MMD rather strongly.

  11. 1.2% (>20,000) margin projecting for MMD with 144/150

    & Correction for my 16:26 posting:
    With updating of older postings, my numbers are within 4 (!) of the set of numbers posted by cf at 15:12. I will gladly stipulate my count of HP =12,636 is 4 short (I was manually cutting and pasting from, and he is surely using a computer). All other numbers (PF, MMD, UNIP, Viod) agree exactly.

    I wasted (as it turns out) my Saturday doing this since I wanted to observe how the numbers changed over time - due the early oddities I noted - such as:
    1) the identical values for Lukulu East and Lukulu West,
    2) the missing counts for UNIP, HP and Void for Mwiniluna East and West (and their exceedingly high MMD percentages), and
    3) a few constituencies found using the search via map interface were incorrectly associated with the constituency result.

    1) has been corrected,
    2) still persists, although similar missing UNIP and HP results for Chavuma have since been corrected, though still seems odd the results for the different parties didn't come in together (I am making the assumption that if they had, they would have been entered in the website at the same time - this is not a strong assuption - cf can put data up in whatever order he wishes, it is his site, but it is just my assumption that if all party's data from a constituency came in together, all data for that constituency would have been posted at the same time), and
    3) was just a graphic User Interface bug - once I started pinging the URL's by constituency number, there were no problems. But if 100% of the counts for these constituencies had been for PF instead of >90% for MMD, it still would not change the result. and all neighbouring reports were strongly MMD.

    In short, unless there was hanky panky before these raw numbers were posted, it seems the current numbers are projecting toward a 1.2% margin of victory for MMD (probably a bit more than 20,000 votes, which is a greater margin than would be affected by moderte levels of foolishness at a small number of sites). Late updates over the past day have not pulled the result one way or another from projections at 105/150.


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