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Monday, 1 December 2008

The FDI spin zone

I was under the impression that FDI this year was $4bn, certainly going by BOZ latest statistics (and I mean FDI pledges, not real investment on the ground) :

"on a year-to-date basis, investment pledges amounted to US $4,249.6 million compared with the US $1,103.5 million recorded during the corresponding period in 2007."
So I was puzzled to read this from the Sunday Mail :

Zambia has this year recorded foreign direct investment amounting to over US$ 9 billion exceeding the projected figure of US$3 billion. Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) corporate and public relations manager Margaret Chimanse said although the figure is up to November this year, it exceeds the projected target of US$ 3 billion growth in foreign direct investment.

I suspect that when its all said and done, even the BOZ $4bn "investment pledges" for this year may actually turn out to be optimistic . Next year when BOZ issues retrospective assessment, it may prove to be significantly less than $4bn . For one thing, I suspect these pledges are never realised. Remember the story of the Russian mirage?

1 comment:

  1. A few large investments in the mining sector can skew the results, a better trend line would be one without those investments, since they tend to be capital intensive ones rather than labor intensive IMHO.

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