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Saturday, 3 October 2009

IMF Economic Outlook (Oct 2009)

The latest IMF sub-Saharan Africa economic outlook has just been released. Real growth projections for Zambia are broadly in line with government forecasts : 4.5% (2009) and 5% (2010). In general sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by a mere 1%. Angola's growth is predicted to have temporarily come to a halt at 0.2% (2009). That is modest compared to Botswana's hard hitting contraction of the economy by -10.3% (2009), thanks to the decline in diamond exports.


  1. They project 1% growth for Africa, and 4.5% growth for Zambia.


    These are the same individuals who swore high and low to Edith Nawakwi, that 'copper prices would not rise in her lifetime'. Right before the biggest boom in copper prices in history.

    These are the same individuals, who armtwisted African governments into following neoliberal policy prescriptions, which has seen the continent lagging behind the economic growth of Asia, which did not take on board such advice.

    What we are seeing is a cyclical shift from the value of paper, to the value of real things. Like food, or copper.

    Whoever is going sell Zambia's copper is going to do very well. If that is the Zambian government, then the Zambian government and people are going to do very well. If it are the western corporations, they are going to do very well and the people are going to do very badly.

    So the Zambian government and people are going to have to make a decision. Who is going to benefit from their copper? They, or Equinox, Vedanta, etc.

    To me, the IMF can take a hike.

  2. @Cho The forecasts aren't broadly in line, they are the same. The IMF uses Government forecasts.

    @MrK Sorry, but Asia did follow IMF recipes. It was Africa that didn't. Africa is now seeing unprecedented growth and wealth as a result of some of these "IMF forced" recipes. Surely you would agree that Zambia is far, far better off now that copper is in the hands of a profit making company, as against being a nationalised loss-making industry.

    So let Equinox and Vedanta prosper. It will lead to your prosperity.

    - YM, from LSK

  3. Anonymous,
    (YM in LSK)

    Government forecast is 4.3%

    IMF forecast is 4.5%

    Link to the Government's MTEF is embedded in the post - source of the 4.3%.


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