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Thursday, 5 May 2011

Zambian Matrix Reloads on New Poll

Dr Neo releases a new poll, but Banda (the other Banda) is having none of it :

I must speak to the Doc for more information, but without seeing the write up, the most fascinating part of the poll is the conclusion that the landscape has not changed. That is both good news and bad news for Patriotic Front. Good news because with the new register (5.2m voters), more than 50% of the voters are in  PF strongholds (Northern, Copperbelt, Luapula and Lusaka). Since new voters are more likely to actually vote than old registered voters, this bodes well for them. The bad news, and we must check with Dr Neo's on this, is that it would appear Western Province is static. We were led to believe that things are much more fluid there. So perhaps MMD is holding the fort. But we have atleast 3 more months of unofficial campaigning and the MMD to spend, spend and spend (and use the public media).

Also let us remember that we have seen other polls fail - see A New Presidential Poll.  And of course there was the problems with the poll that never was in 2008

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