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Friday, 28 September 2012

Green Paper - MTEF 2013 - 2015 and Budget 2013

The Government has released the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2013 to 2015 and the outline for the 2013 budget. This is the first MTEF that has been wholly prepared by the current Government. It is also the PF broad plan for re-election as the MTEF runs to 2015. 

Green Paper: 2013 - 2015 Medium Term Expenditure Framework

1 comment:

  1. Is this MTEF meant to be read literally or should it discounted as mere politicking? A lot of work must have gone into compiling this paper. I like the prose- the organisation of the information, the graphs and the general presentation. I believe this paper was prepared by our educated colleagues in the ministries. Of course there would have been guidance from the presiding political masters from the PF. It is a pity that this MTEF is devalued by the ‘pie in the sky’ promises .
    This paper is best read without a calculator nearby! The compilers of the MTEF did not bother to do the very basic and elementary task of estimating what the cost will be of the projects that they are suggesting. Let us for a start take the road construction and rehabilitation program suggested for Northern parts of the country ref (paragraphs 70, 71). I reckon that is over 1500km of road, through difficult terrain.( Think of Mpika- Chipata- you have to cross virgin bush and go through the Luangwa flood plain and over the Escarpment!) According to one World bank paper, Median cost in the year 2000, for road construction, was US$ 1 million/km. For comparison, the Mongu- Kalabo costs about US$ 5 million/km. Thus roads in the northern half of the country will chew up at least US$ 2 billion possibly up to US$ 7billion. But there are more roads promised elsewhere as well. Ditto for the Airports, ditto for Water and Sanitation, railways, debt dismantling . All the revenue projected by ZRA, from grants, Eurobonds -name it -will not be able to fund even a third of the projects suggested!
    So the question again – Is this the ‘90 days’ version from treasury? The more pertinent question perhaps , is there no end to the perception by politicians that the Zambian public will once again prove very gullible?


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