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Wednesday, 21 January 2015

Zambia Votes

The nation went to the polls yesterday. Here is what we know based on the results we have compiled and information from our experts. 

1. PF has won decisively in Muchinga, Luapula, Northern, Copperbelt, Lusaka and Eastern provinces.

2. UPND has won decisively in Southern Province, Western and North Western. North It has also thrown some not so decisive results e.g. Magoye. 

3. PF has captured  large parts of Central province. UPND has performed reasonably well in some parts. This is more on a level. 

4. Turn out has ranged 30% - 40%. Turn out appears higher in urban areas than rural areas. For example, Copperbelt it has been around 38%. But in Southern Province very low around 30%.  We are cross checking these turn out rates. 

5. Some small parts of Eastern Province and Western have not voted yet. Probably their votes may be irrelevant based on what is coming out. 

We need to run projections based on turn out and existing results. And we shall update you as necessary. 

We are now beginning to get a sense of the overall picture. We will pull together a table of where we are. Thanks to our friend Elias Munshya who has led on this effort.

We should of course remind readers that the only authority on all of this is ECZ. And of course we are economists not pollsters or statisticians.

5 comments:

  1. The writing is on the wall..

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  2. If that writing is of a PF victory then would the last foreign investor please turn the lights out as you leave.

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  3. Curious how this one turns coz the ties are just too close!

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  4. Curious how this one turns coz the ties are just too close!

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  5. Elias Munshya has done a tremendous job. If voter turnout in SP was also low - 30%, how come HH got double digits thousands from neatly every precinct. Yet EL did not get that from C/B. If apathy level is the same differences should not be that much. Could the explanation be in double voting? Also did the rainfall/logistics delay affect voting? This is an interesting question since HH totals from only 3 provinces is nearly same as EL from rest of zbia.

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