Zambian Economist

Zambia Tourism (CNN Report)

2012-01-27T09:00:00.000Z

ZRA Commission Report

2012-01-26T20:38:00.000Z

Cabinet at its sitting on Wednesday 25th January, 2012 accepted without reservations the report on the findings of the Commission of Inquiry into the operations of Zambia Revenue Authority. Cabinet has reversed fraudulent procurements regarding Zambia Revenue Authority related contracts with Bradwell International, and Cargo Scan. Cabinet has also directed the reversal of the concession of the borders namely; Kasumbalesa, Nakonde, Jimbe, Kipushi, Mwami and Chanida and the reversal of tax concession offered to Varum Beverages Limited, the promoters of the Pepsi Zambia Project. The Ministerial Statement and ZRA Commission Report is embedded below.

Zra Commission of Inquiry - Final Report

Ministers Statement on Zra Commission of Inquiry

A Market for Lemons

2012-01-25T09:00:00.000Z

Justice Permanent Secretary Patricia Jere has observed that lawyers are shunning the opportunity because "of the huge work load and lack of incentives...lawyers shunned to work as magistrates in preference to private practice which was more lucrative...vacancies had not been filled because there were no magistrates on the market". Poor incentives are certainly part of the problem, but it still leaves us with an incomplete picture. I would suggest that there at least additional observations to be made.

The first is that a large part of the problem is poor reputation. The politicisation of the judiciary and general rampant corruption has forced many legal minds who are sincere in their duties to avoid working for the government. Being a magistrate goes far beyond simply doing a job, its about public service. When the public sector becomes tainted it becomes difficult to attract people.

A more serious problem Ms Jere would do well to consider is the poor quality of remaining magistrates. The poor reputation of the judiciary does not just prevent people from joining, but also leads to the exit of good magistrates and attraction of poor ones (those who can't make it as lawyers and are too corrupt). This is a classic market for lemons, with only the bad eggs left. Good wages alone wont fix this problem. What it needs is improvement in the professional standards, strong leadership at the top of judiciary and greater commitment to rooting out corrupt magistrates.

Public Notice

2012-01-25T08:41:00.001Z

ZAMBIA INSTITUTE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH

IN CONJUNCTION WITH

ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION OF ZAMBIA

PRESENTS A PUBLIC DISCUSSION FORUM

TOPIC “Should the Zambian Government Invest in Railways”

DATE: Thursday, 26th January 2012

VENUE: Taj Pamodzi Hotel, Club Lounge

TIME: 18:00 – 20:00 Hours

Presenter: Mr. Alan Whiteworth- Technical Advisor, Zambia Institute for
Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)

Discussants: Mr. Nelson Nyangu – Director Planning, Ministry of Transport
& Communications
Mr. Trevor Simumba – International Business Consultant

Moderator : Mr. Emmaunel Hachipuka –Former Chairperson of the Public
Accounts Committee (PAC) of the
National Assembly of Zambia.

ENTRY IS FREE, FREE, FREE!

THE GENERAL PUBLIC AND MEDIA ARE ALL INVITED.

For Details: Contact ZIPAR, Tel: 252566, OR 0977967996
E-mail: info@zipar.org.zm

eazambia@iconnect.zm

A Portrait of Poverty, 2nd Edition

2012-01-24T10:00:00.000Z

"No one has ever assisted me neither my relatives nor the church where I congregate, my life has always been one of pain and strife"

Ms Albertina Mwewa on her life living as one of the blind beggars on the streets of Lusaka. Nancy Handabile's insightful piece Blind and Surving on the Streets chronicles her daily challenges. Her story is one in which poverty reinforces poverty - from birth to the grave. Ms Mwewa was born in a poor family of six in Samfya. When she was three, she suffered blindness. Due to her blindness she never went to school and instead got married at a very tender age to a fellow blind man with whom she had seven children. She has lost four children due to poverty and general illnesses which has compounded her sorrow in life. As if that is not enough trouble to add to her list of woes, Ms Mwewa is facing the odds of life all alone having divorced her polygamous husband who went and married another woman with sight. So now she is stuck on the streets begging to pay rent and children to support.

Related Post :

A Portrait of Poverty

Delivering good health on the cheap

2012-01-23T21:08:00.003Z

Charles Kenny argues that better health need not wait on economic development nor does it rely on extensive network of hospitals staffed with doctors. Rather what is needed is a widespread access to basic health tools and services, not least vaccination programmes, skilled birth attendants, and clinics stocked with antimalarials and basic antibiotics. These things form part of cheap interventions that can deliver reduced mortality in poor countries. A very relevant issue for Zambia as health is one of the four core areas of the new government. We have previously touched on Kenny's ideas here.

Don't wait for wealth — better health needs basic tools, Charles Kenny, SciDevNet, Commentary :

The conventional wisdom is that wealthier is healthier: staying alive longer takes expensive stuff, and so a country's quickest way to better health for its people is economic development.
There's a lot to that argument. Good nutrition, shelter, hospitals — they all cost money. And that's surely a big part of why life expectancies in high-income countries are twenty years longer than those in low-income countries worldwide, according to World Bank data. Even within countries, household surveys suggest richer families live longer and stay healthier than poorer ones.

But the good news is that income is only one factor, and not the most important one, in explaining global health outcomes. It doesn't take a lot of money to sustain a long and healthy life even in the poorest countries. The challenge is to ensure that a cheap basic package of health interventions is available to — and is used by — all.

Ever more affordable

Survey data suggest that basic primary health services can be delivered in rural areas at very low cost — US$2.82 per person in Cambodia, for example, and US$6.25 in Guatemala. [1]

Cheap interventions like vaccination, better hygiene, bednets, oral rehydration, breast feeding, antimalarial drugs and antibiotics can prevent or ameliorate the big child killers in developing countries — communicable diseases like measles and malaria as well as sepsis and diarrhoea.

Even better, cost has been dropping over time as simple, more cost-effective approaches are being rolled out. For example, a sugar, salt and water mix for oral rehydration can prevent most deaths from diarrhoea and can be administered by anyone. This simple treatment has largely replaced the earlier intravenous saline solution that had to be administered by a nurse.

More recently, in the last couple of years, donor agencies and developing country governments have begun rolling out the first vaccine against pneumococcal disease strains common in developing countries. This vaccine, against the leading global killer of children under the age of five, costs just US$3.50 a dose.

The low cost of these interventions means they could be distributed quickly even in some of the poorest and most remote areas of the world. For example, between 1974 and 2000, the level of immunisation against six diseases — measles, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, tuberculosis and polio — increased from five to 80 per cent of the world's newborns.

Dramatic improvements

As a result of expanded vaccination coverage, the number of measles cases worldwide reported to the WHO fell from 4.5 million in the early 1980s to below 400,000 by 2010.

That is why even very poor countries are seeing dramatic improvements in health outcomes. My colleague Ursula Casabonne and I recently estimated that child mortality for a country with an income of $1,000 per capita was 22.4 per cent in 1975, but that had dropped to 16.3 per cent by 2005.

This is part of a global trend towards improved health outcomes first detected by Samuel Preston thirty-five years ago. [2] Preston found that, while richer countries remained healthier than poorer countries, countries at the same level of income over time were seeing dramatically better health outcomes.

The rollout of simple and cheap interventions helps to explain the weak link between rates of health improvement and the rate of economic growth across countries — and so the importance of factors other than wealth. It also accounts for the rapid improvement in global health, despite a declining number of hospital beds per person worldwide.

Boosting demand

But better health also requires changes on the demand side — and this is perhaps most underappreciated by the development community. It requires parents who breast feed; get their kids vaccinated; put them under bednets; demand their kids use soap (and use it themselves); and use oral rehydration to treat diarrhoea.

Survey data from 45 low-income countries show that the prevalence of common diseases had little power in explaining whether a particular child lived or died. But educating parents to seek the right treatment could lower child mortality by nearly a third. [3]

This suggests that development agencies and policymakers should be spending more time exploring ways to improve uptake of health practices and innovations.

Many simple interventions on the demand side of health show promise. For example, providing a bag of lentils to parents who get their kids vaccinated improves vaccination rates considerably. And carefully designed community-based learning for pregnant mothers about birth preparedness, clean deliveries, breastfeeding and how to recognise danger signs can significantly reduce neonatal deaths.

Health systems in developing countries need to improve — but that is only part of the battle. Better health need not wait on economic development. And neither does it require an extensive network of hospitals staffed with doctors.

What it does require is widespread access to basic health tools and services, not least vaccination programmes, skilled birth attendants, and clinics stocked with antimalarials and basic antibiotics. Developing new, cheap interventions, and boosting demand for them, is a vital part of reducing mortality across the world.

Charles Kenny is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington DC. He is author of Getting Better: Why Global Development is Succeeding (Basic Books, 2011) and, with Ursula Casabonne The Best Things in Life are Nearly Free: Technology, Knowledge and Global Health (forthcoming in World Development).

REFERENCES

[1] Loevinsohn,B and Harding, A. Buying results? Contracting for health service delivery in developing countries. The Lancet: 676–681 (2005) [75.2kB]
[2] Preston, S. H. Causes and Consequences of Mortality Declines in Less Developed Countries during the Twentieth Century [1MB]. In Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries (Ed. Easterlin, R.A.). University of Chicago Press (1980)
[3] Boone P. and Zhan Z. Lowering Child Mortality in Poor Countries: The Powe

r of Knowledgeable Parents [705kB]. (2006)

Parastatal Madness, 16th Edition

2012-01-20T09:00:00.000Z

We have previously touched on the problems local authorities continue in their effort to recover payments from public (and private) debtors. This has rendered them rendering them virtually broke and ineffective by central government. Lusaka City Council recently revealed that its is owed over K28bn in property land rates by both private and public land owners. The council has completed compiling a list of property owners who have been defaulting in the payment of rates. It its words, it "has been failing to provide social services due to limited resources because many clients have not been paying land rates". It has plans to "prosecute the people who have failed to pay" and will "engage bailiffs to ensure that most of the money owed is paid to the institution". But will this really work against public authority? I am not aware of any case where one public authority has sued another!

But with problems like these, is it any wonder that many local roads are full of potholes or many of our areas lack essential services that would normally be delivered by local authorities? In developed countries, councils owe central government money, in our nation it is the other way round. I remain convinced that the problem is not lack of decentralisation, but lack of effective enforcement of existing debt obligations in our judicial system. The councils have money and probably the capacity to deliver their priorities, but are hindered by a central government that fails to honour legally binding contracts. And of course they are held back by a justice system that fails to ensure judgements against private sector defaulters.

Prosecution of Corruption

2012-01-19T14:49:00.000Z

An interesting comment from Charles Mulipi on the Auditor General:

"We need to enhance the role of the Auditor General to make them have responsibility for initiating prosecutions to those who are erring...At the moment, you can be chairman of the Accounts Committee (PAC) and you expose so many things but you still rely on the executive to prosecute, if they want to….”

In its raw form this idea would be costly. A cheaper version of the proposal would focus the Auditor General's prosecutable powers on more serious cases, otherwise she would drown with every case! This is the approach adopted in Sierra Leone where their Anti Corruption Commission Act gives power to the Sierra Leone ACC to send cases directly to court. Prior those changes the Sierra Leone ACC was required to send all their cases to the Attorney General for approval first like is the case in Zambia. As a result many cases against top government officials perished on the table of the Attorney General who never prosecuted these matters.

However, it is interesting to note that Sierra Leone has not given similar powers to the Auditor General as Mulipi suggests in the Zambian context. Perhaps because doing so would cut across the responsibilities of the Director of Public Prosecution (DPP) and the Attorney General. It seems to me that extending such powers outside our current established system, whether its the ACC or the Auditor General is not only problematic structurally, but also intellectually. A key problem is that the reason such extensions would be necessary is because we would have concluded the DPP and Attorney General were inefficient or corrupt. That is the only reason. The Auditor General produces the annual report, all that remains is for these two public offices to act on it. The question we should all be asking is - why don't they act?

As far as the Auditor General is concerned, the only reform we need there is to simply ensure that when the Auditor General's Report is adopted by Parliament, she should send all the information to the relevant investigative wings. The Laws of Zambia should enshrine this process as automatic and emphasise the liability for prosecution squarely on the investigative wings, working with the DPP and the Attorney General. At the end of each year the investigative wings could be mandated to give an account to Parliament on how they proceeded on each task. Parliament of course would have no big stick to wave, but it could serve a useful role in shouting loud to the public that the relevant investigative wings and DPP are not doing their job.

In theory this could be more effectively targeted at more serious cases and would guarantee some end product to her work.

In all this we must remember that bringing cases to the court is one thing, ensuring they don't get held up in court and serve the appropriate sentence is another.

Debt Watch (India)

2012-01-18T14:14:00.000Z

Over the holidays, there was an announcement of yet another debt deal without any parliamentary oversight. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that India has given Zambia a credit of US$50 million to finance the reconstruction of pre-fabricated health centres in all the provinces. The credit facility will be repaid over 20 years at an interest rate of 1.75 percent. According Former Minister Kambwili this is part of the PF government intention to "ensure that there is reliable infrastructure as opposed to the former government’s now disused mobile hospitals".

The Daily Mail observes that "minister could not immediately indicate the number of the pre-fabricated health centres to be procured". In other words, its appears to be yet another case of accumulating debt without a clear assessment or planning. The idea may be noble, but going into debt without clear facts to hand does not seem like a good way to manage public debt. A larger problem of course is that Parliament continues to be sidelined because no clear debt management strategy exists. There should be a halt to debt procurement until that is resolved - not least because Zambia has not fully capitalised on leveraging domestic sources of revenue.

ZAMTEL Commission Report

2012-01-17T20:10:00.003Z

The final report to President Michael Sata of the Commission of Inquiry into the sale of ZAMTEL. The Government has release this confidential report to foster transparency and encourage public debate on the future of ZAMTEL.

Zamtel Commission Report - Government of the Republic of Zambia

Luapula Manganese, 7th Edition

2012-01-17T20:04:00.000Z

"These mining companies are currently mining without leaving anything for the Government and the council. This is so because the mines are not appearing anywhere in our valuation roll and deeds records, although some of the mining firm’s activities are legal.."

Mansa Town Clerk Bright Mbambai recently confirmed what everyone knows. Government is losing collossal sums through illegal manganese mining in Mansa. He attributes the plunder to failure by manganese extraction firms not formalising their operations with the relevant authorities. The mining companies do not even appear in the Mansa Council Valuation Roll to compel them to pay the taxes through the local authorities. Seven mining companies had so far been issued with large-scale mining licences but that, they had not formalised their operations with the council, leading to the loss of revenue. That's just Mansa - throughout Luapula the picture is the same, with most Manganese disappearing across the DRC border along with other minerals.

Zambian Agricultural Commodity Exchange

2012-01-16T06:59:00.000Z

An interesting presentation on the constraints facing the development of ZAMACE, including some of the restructuring proposals. The full paper can be found here.

ZAMACE - Institutional Changes and Persistent Challenges - Dec 2011

Merry Xmas and Happy 2012

2011-12-15T13:43:00.002Z

Dear Friends,

As is customary since this website was founded, I will be taking 1 month off to recharge the batteries. Over the years I have come to value this period and I hope you agree that it has served us well. I am conscious though that we have not achieved everything I hoped to do this year regarding this project, so the break will be a good time for reflecting on how best we move forward.

Many thanks for all your support through this year. As always your encouragement and many website visits continues to be a great source of encourage. A special thank you to those who have financially contributed. Your funds are vital in helping with buying books to review, maintaining the domain and paying for some resources we need. I am always humbled that you consider the work worthy supporting financially given the myriads of choices you have!

Another huge thanks to our many Facebook and Twitter readers. Your contributions continue to be insightful and relevant. They provide a valuable source to steer the thinking and prioritise issues that need to be covered.

Wishing you all a wonder Xmas and fantastic 2012!!

May the Lord keep you safe and secure during the festive period.

See you on 15 January 2012, God willing.

Chola Mukanga

Founder, Zambian Economist

http://www.zambian-economist.com

Email : cho@zambian-economist.com

Twitter : http://www.twitter.com/cholamukanga

Corruption in Zambia - The Quest for A Successful Struggle

2011-12-15T13:25:00.001Z

This month's short essay examines revisits the corruption question and suggests a credible approach to dealing with it. The essay is embedded below (PDF downloadable) and the HTML version can be found via our Facebook page for those using handheld devices. We continue to value your feedback on these essays and as well as potential topics for 2012.

Corruption in Zambia - The Quest for a Successful Struggle

Debt Watch (China), 4th Edition

2011-12-13T21:13:00.000Z

The Government has entered into yet another debt deal with China. This week Alexander Chikwanda received an economic and technical cooperation grant agreement (free money) amounting to US$7m and then proceeded to borrow US$10m on top. We are told the the money will be used "in the fight against poverty and projects to be agreed upon by the two governments". So we are borrowing money that we do not even know where its going to be used? One assumes that China would have been content just to give the US$7m without lending the extra.

Mr Chikwanda was also keen to reiterate that it is "Government’s desire to access Chinese financial assistance and technical expertise to extend the TAZARA railway line project to Angola".  So more debt coming. The problems with all of these loans (small or large) is that they are just arbitrary and without any clear audit trails. Our hope (faint) is that Mr Chikwanda will slow down a bit and put his thinking cap on. It does not not make sense to keep on borrowing without a proper debt management strategy underpinned by appropriate legislation. Its my view that until that is done there should be no more borrowing, big or small.

Related Posts:

Debt Watch (China), 3rd Edition
Debt Watch (China), 2nd Edition
Debt Watch (China)

A Poor Statement

2011-12-12T22:20:00.002Z

If this misguided statement from Mines Minister Simuusa on the current mining regime is anything to go by we are in for some problems on the mining front:

"For now (the royalties) will stay, but if it becomes a crisis, if prices crash, we might have to review the regime... not in 2012 but for 2013, in the next budget..."

One assumes that Mr Simuusa is trying to reassure mining companies that the Government is sensitive to the global pressures. But this statement is misguided for a number of reasons.

First, it shows the current mining regime is not well conceived. A good mining taxation regime does not constant adjustment. We were told by the Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda that the new regime is sufficient to capture appropriate revenue. If that indeed is the case, why would the Government already be talking about possible scenarios that would require reversals? Isn't it better to design a tax regime that automatically adjusts in the low revenue years?

Secondly, the Mines Minister appears not to understand that the big problem facing Zambia's mining taxation regime is stability. One of the things mining companies have repeatedly said is that constantly changing the fiscal regime whether for good reasons or not does not inspire investor confidence. They have always argued that certainty is paramount to deliver long term investment. Mining companies are therefore more broadly interested in a long term stable policy than the level of the taxation (provided the tax is not unnecessarily high). So what exactly is prompting Mr Simuusa to be sounding off like this?

Thirdly, it is poor policy making to speculate publicly about conditions that are not in play. Giving statements to Reuters is not a way to develop an effective mining policy. If the Mr Simuusa wanted to make it clear that the new Government plans to change policy at every whim then why not state so in fully consulted White Paper? This constant pandering to mining companies is retrogressive and an affront to our poor.

Finally, Mr Simuusa's policy statements are reckless because they encourage non-compliance of the current mining taxation regime. When a Government has just announced a new increase in a given tax and then turns round to say it is prepared to reduce it before the tax man has even started collecting it, it suggests a lack of backbone. Mr Simuusa is signalling to mining companies that Zambia is a soft target - constantly not serious about its stated position. In short Mr Simuusa needs to quickly learn that statements made in the media has repercussions for other parts of Government.

We recognise that this is a new Government still learning, but Zambia's problems are too great for permanent on the job training.

Top 5 Books of 2011

2011-12-10T00:57:00.001Z

As we edge closer to the end of 2011, and our impending annual blogging break (due 15 December), I thought it was prudent to share our customary look at the top books released in 2011. Once again a difficult choice. As always the list reflects what I found interesting, fresh, challenging and inspiring. The list of course reflects my broader reading of new books. You will naturally have read other interesting new releases. Would be interested to see what you found eye catching.

(5) Dancing In The Glory of Monsters by Jason Sterns seeks to offer a narrative of the wars that have been raging in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is particularly useful in terms of drawing out the various roles played by its neighbours, especially the Rwandan government. It is naturally graphic and certainly not for the faint hearted. I suppose if there's a downside is that it is often unbalanced and could have done with better polishing or story telling. But certainly one of the most important books released this year and a must read for students of African affairs. You can't understand Africa until you understand the Congo. The book offers a great start in that area.

(4) Mugabe and the White African by Ben Freeth is another book with a quite graphic take on things. I suspect many people who have yet to read the book are certainly familiar with the documentary by the same name. The author recounts the oppression and brutality that he, and many white farmers, suffered under Robert Mugabe. It is a heart wrenching but necessary perspective to the usual voices. In truth we will really never get a full picture of the brutality of Mugabe's forced repossession of land in the false pretext of empowerment (much of the land went to Mugabe's cronies), until Mugabe retires. But this book again is a great start in another complex problem! I should warn that reading this book from an "analytical" perspective will leave many disappointed. This is more or less a personal story, but one I recommend highly!

(3) The Priest's Graveyard by Ted Dekker is novel about two abandoned souls on the hunt for one powerful man. Soon, their paths will cross and lead to one twisted fate.Danny Hansen is a Bosnian immigrant in America with hopes of escaping haunted memories of a tragic war that took his mother's life. Now he's a priest. Yet that does not stop him from acting as an avenging angel on those who stay within the criminal law but live outside the laws of love and compassion. Renee Gilmore is the frail and helpless victim of one such powerful man. Having escaped his clutches, she now lives only to satisfy justice by destroying him, regardless of whom she must become in that pursuit. But when Danny and Renee's paths become inexorably entangled, neither of them may make it out of this hunt alive. It keeps you on the edge and has fascinating moral issues that the mind will inevitably engage with.

(2) Getting Better by Charles Kenny is the only book in the "Top 5" we have reviewed. The central thesis of the book is that we can be optimistic about the progress countries are making around the world. Its not all doom and gloom.The author drives this point home by pointing to the evidence of widespread improvements in health, education, peace, liberty and even happiness. He shows how the spread of cheap technologies, such as vaccines and bed nets, and ideas, such as political rights, has transformed the world. He also shows that by understanding this transformation, we can make the world an even better place to live. That's not to say that life is grand for everyone, or that we dont have a long way to go. But improvements have spread far, and, according to Kenny, they can spread even further. A book worth reading - and do check out our review.

(1) God in a Brothel by Daniel Walker is the most challenging and important book released this year. The book tells the the true story of an undercover investigator's experiences infiltrating the multi-billion dollar global sex industry. It is partly a personal story of one man who made it his mention to help tackle this despicable trade. But it is also about opening the window to this quite dark industry where we get to see some ray of light shine. A remarkable story of triumph for the children and young teens released from a life of slavery and the rescuer who freed many hundreds of victims leading to the prosecution of dozens of perpetrators. And it is a story of haunting despair for those left behind in corrupt systems of law enforcement. A real challenge and a must read for anyone who longs for a just and better world.

Parastatal Madness, 15th Edition

2011-12-09T16:01:00.000Z

More revelation of broken parastatals. Minister for Transport, Works, Supply and Communication Yamfwa Mukanga has demanded an explanation from Zampost management on its decision to renovate the post master general's house at a cost of K2 billion. To add to that the company owes Roraima Financial Services K12 billion for money transfer services and has other historical debts in taxes to Government and other parastatal institutions.

Related Posts :
Parastatal Madness, 14th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 13th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 12th Edition
Parastatal Madness, 11th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 10th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 9th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 8th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 7th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 6th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 5th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 4th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 3rd Edition

Parastatal Madness, 2nd Edition

Parastatal Madness

Why have farming subsidies failed to reduce poverty?

2011-12-08T22:02:00.000Z

The past two years are a tribute to Zambian farmers: they have responded admirably to government efforts to promote maize production. Being the most important staple food in Zambia, maize surpluses contribute to food security and benefit the nation. But the smallest farmers in Zambia— those cultivating less than 2 hectares who account for over 70% of all the smallholder farms in the country —participated only marginally in the maize production expansion of 2010/11. These farmers received relatively little FISP fertiliser and sold very little maize, hence they were unable to benefit from the FRA producer price of 65,000 kwacha per bag. The farmers benefiting the most from the government’s expenditures on supporting maize prices were clearly those selling the most maize.

This disaggregated picture of Zambia’s maize production expansion may reveal why rural poverty rates remain so high despite the record maize harvests in the past two years. The benefits of the two main poverty reduction programmes have been enjoyed disproportionately by the larger smallholder farmers who received more subsidised fertiliser per farm and sold substantially more maize than the 73% of farmers cultivating less than 2 hectares. In fact, about 30% of the relatively poor smallholder households actually had to purchase more maize and maize meal than they produced to meet their families’ food needs and hence were adversely affected by a support price
policy that raised maize prices in the countryside.

From a recent FSRP policy synthesis paper - Mountains of Maize, Persistent Poverty. The authors go on to recommend that future efforts to reduce rural poverty by the new government could focus on targeting subsidised FISP fertiliser to the smallest farmers. This would provide them with greater opportunities to produce a surplus and benefit from FRA support prices. Targeting subsidised fertiliser in this way would have a greater likelihood of reducing rural poverty. It all seems fairly obvious, but it was not so obvious to the last government.

A Failure of Reason

2011-12-07T16:30:00.000Z

An interesting development in Msanzala :

Msanzala independent member of parliament Colonel Joseph Lungu has allegedly resigned and has immediately joined the ruling Patriotic Front. Col Lungu said he had decided to join the ruling party in order to ensure development of Msanzala which had lagged behind for some time. Col Lungu said he felt he could not take development to the area as an independent parliamentarian. He hoped to be adopted by the PF and promised that he would continue with development projects for the area.

It is not often one comes across a complete failure of reason, but this is a good candidate. This appears foolish at many levels. There's much that can be said for the costly nature of his decision and the possibility of better alternative arrangements. For example, someone might rightly ask, why not just enter an arrangement with PF? Surely that would deliver the same results! It can't be job seeking because MMD MPs are already in government without switching sides!

But what I wanted to comment on is the report that "Col Lungu said he felt he could not take development to the area as an independent parliamentarian". There are two problems with this idea. The immediate one is that it promotes corruption among parliamentarians. There's a view being espoused here that one must have a strong relationship (nepotistic) with the current administration in order for your area to be developed. This is very divisive. Government exists to serve all people regardless of political affiliation. Unfortunately this is one of those cancerous vices introduced by the failed MMD regime with its promotion of regionalism (Lambaland, Bembaland, etc) and corruption based politics. George Kunda and Dora Siliya were notorious for suggesting that only by having an MP from the ruling party was development possible.

A related and more serious problem is that it perpetuates the misguided view that the legislature only matters when the representatives in question are members of the current administration. This reinforces the huge misconceptions people have about MPs. The role of the MP is poorly understood, and Col Lungu sadly does not get it. In fact neither does Silvia Masebo when she claimed she is now poised to "deliver development" to Chongwe. Unless Ms Masebo is relying on corrupt favours, she is incapable of delivering development. In fact it is not her primary job to deliver development to Chongwe.

The primary role of an MP is to vote on legislation and make laws on behalf of their constituency (the "legislative function"). They also have an additional function of representing the views of their constituency to Parliament e.g. special problems they are facing which the executive branch has failed to address ("advocacy function"). It is not the role of an MP to bring economic development, since in a well functioning society such functions would be performed by an effective local government with appropriate support from central government. The MP's role is simply to ensure that the local preferences are fully reflected in national decisions. Once the MP brings the problem to the attention of the Executive, it is expected that they would follow through where they can.

Unfortunately in our country, the local government is non-existent, due to ineffective capacity and molestation by the Executive (e.g. through large unpaid debts). So the MP has assumed the de-facto role of a leader. MPs have absolutely zero levers to deliver development, besides the Constituency Development Fund, which has its own problems. In fact many spend their personal fortunes to appease their constituency ending up in bankruptcy.

I should also point that to the extent that voting systems define the extent to which MPs are "connected" to their constituency, we can expect that the balance between the "legislative function" and "advocacy" to vary from one system to the next. Under the current system we expect that MPs are significantly tied to local communities, but where you have a national Proportional Representation system, the "advocacy function" is slightly diminished. Incidentally, I have previously advocated a different system that supports greater role for chiefs (enhances their "advocacy function") within a stronger decentralised framework. Under that system the role of the MP would be purely "legislative". A monthly essay is coming on in the new year.

The Grand Inga Project, 2nd Edition

2011-12-06T16:30:00.000Z

The Grand Inga Project is not dead. Last month President Zuma (RSA) signed a deal with President Kabila (DRC) in the first step of the project designed to "save Africa". The project could dwarf China's Three Gorges Dam is meant to come onstream by 2025. Still in the feasibility stages, the Grand Inga, expected to generate 40,000 megawatts, could be a long-term solution to all our power problems, but investors have held back due to political risk and its $60 billion price tag. A fascinating article explores whether the project could finally come fruition.

Mine Watch (Muntanga)

2011-12-05T19:18:00.001Z

Denison Mines Corp recently announced that it could potentially boost the resource estimate at its Mutanga project by 16 to 24 million pounds of uranium, based on exploration drilling completed this year. However, it has warned that though the results look promising, it has not done enough drilling to properly define an increase in the resources. Exploration at Mutanga will continue in 2012.

Denison produces uranium and vanadium in the United States. Denison is among other companies that have quietly corned uranium mining in Zambia with a range of small lucrative projects. We have been promised that its Mutanga and Dimbwe Deposits in Siavonga will create approximately 300 jobs in 2012. But everyone is silent on how much money will go into the national pocket. The old dreams of a uranium powered Zambia runs hollow indeed!

Investment Watch (Lime)

2011-12-05T19:09:00.001Z

Lions Group Quarries (LGQ) Limited, a local firm is planning to construct a lime plant in Kafue district at a cost of US$30 million. The project is expected create 200 jobs. According to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) the new plant, which will be located next to its existing quarry and crusher plant located in Lusaka West, will produce 400 tonnes per day as start-up production capacity with production expected to rise to 800 tonnes per day after three years.

Mine Watch (Mimbula)

2011-12-05T19:02:00.001Z

Konkola Copper Mines has announced plans to resume output at the Mimbula open pit mine as part of Vedanta'ss strategy to extend mine life at its operations. KCM plans to carry out activities at Mimbula including extension of the power line to the site as well as pit de-watering and de-silting as mining has not taken place there since the 1970s. The opening of the Mimbula mine, located on the Copperbelt, is still under evaluation with further details forthcoming.

Budget 2012 : National Budget for Agriculture

2011-12-02T09:37:00.001Z

The ACF / IAPRI policy presentation on the Budget - 2012 Zambian Agriculture Budget Analysis. As the selected graphics below show (click to enlarge), there has been such deviation from actual allocations in previous budgets, that the word "budget" does not carry much meaning. We hope this will change under the new government.

Equality through employment

2011-12-01T21:04:00.000Z

Andres Velasco argues that the best way to tack rising inequality is through job creation. Focusing on evidence Chile, he argues that if poor households had the same access to jobs as the middle classes enjoy, the gap between rich and poor would narrow by half.

Jobs for Justice, Andrés Velasco, Project Syndicate, Commentary :

“Do you feel it trickle down?” ask the protesters occupying Wall Street and parts of financial districts from London to San Francisco. They are not alone in their anxiety. Income inequality is a top concern not only in tent cities across the United States, but also among street protesters in Taipei, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Athens, Madrid, Santiago, and elsewhere.

Inequality almost everywhere, including China, has become so extreme that it must be reduced. Protesters, experts, and center-left politicians agree on this – and on little else. The debate about inequality’s causes is complex and often messy; the debate about how to address it is messier still.

In the rich countries of the global north, the widening gap between rich and poor results from technological change, globalization, and the misdeeds of investment bankers. In the not-so-rich countries of the south, much inequality is the consequence of a more old-fashioned problem: lack of employment opportunities for the poor.

In a forthcoming book, University of Chile economist Cristóbal Huneeus and I examine the roots of inequality in Chile and elsewhere in Latin America and come away with three policy prescriptions: jobs, jobs, jobs. In the last quarter-century, Chile managed to consolidate democracy, triple per capita income, and achieve the highest living standards in Latin America, with near-universal coverage in health care, education, and old-age pensions. Yet the gap in the labor incomes of rich and poor has barely budged.

In Chile and elsewhere, discussions of inequality tend to focus on how much people earn. According to national household surveys, a Chilean worker earning the minimum wage takes home $300 a month, while a professional in the top 10% of the income scale typically makes about $2,400 dollars a month. But that eight-fold gap is only the tip of the inequality iceberg.

It also turns out that the poor worker lives in a household where only 0.5 people on average have a job, so that two families are needed for one steady source of income. By contrast, in the upscale professional’s household, nearly two people on average hold down a job.

Add to this several other differences – above all, poorer families’ higher fertility rates – and the sums reveal that the top 10% of households actually make 78 times more (on a per capita basis) than those at the bottom. That is the kind of figure that keeps Chile ranked high globally in terms of inequality, despite the country’s other achievements.

Put differently: not only take-home pay, but also employment opportunities can be unequally distributed. Compound the two problems and you have world-class income disparities. Chile is hardly alone in this category. South Africa, another country that is proud of its exemplary transition to democracy, suffers from the same problem in an even more extreme version. And, within Latin America, Colombia and Brazil, among others, face a similar combination of low employment and high inequality.

The main victims of this state of affairs are women and the young, for whom employment ratios are much lower than for the population as a whole. A typical poor household in Chile and elsewhere in Latin America is headed by a woman with only primary-school education. She has small children, limited access to day care, and few job opportunities.

That is the bad news – and it is very bad news indeed. The good news is that reducing inequality by creating jobs for the poor may prove to be faster than altering the entire structure of wages. Over the medium term, wages depend on productivity, which in turn depends crucially on higher-quality education and training for the poor, which Latin American countries certainly need. Indeed, a heated national debate about how to improve education has seized Chile for much of the past year.

But educational reforms, however urgent and important, take a long time to bear fruit, whereas changes in employment can reduce inequality more quickly – and the effects can be large. In our book, we estimate that if poor households in Chile had the same access to jobs as the middle classes enjoy, the gap between rich and poor would narrow by half.

So, what is the best way to create job opportunities for the poor? A growing economy with low inflation and financial stability is a necessary but insufficient condition. Labor rules that favor job creation – what Scandinavian countries call active labor-market policies – are needed: a combination of information, training, and subsidies that help overcome what are typically serious failures in the market for young workers with limited skills and experience.

The problem is more political than economic. In most Latin American countries, big business and labor have a long history of mutual distrust, and getting them to agree on changes to labor-market rules is hardly an easy task. Moreover, many unemployed young people are not registered to vote, so providing jobs for them is hardly a top priority for the political establishment.

Equality through employment – not the snazziest of slogans, but one well worth painting on banners and flying over occupied squares and parks, on Wall Street and much farther afield.

How do we reduce unemployment?

2011-11-30T20:50:00.001Z

IMF's Masood Ahmed on potential policy prescriptions for unemployment in Central Asia :

A good starting point is to develop better labor statistics, which would help policymakers get a firmer grip on the scale and scope of the unemployment problem and, in turn, help them formulate policies to tackle it.

On a basic level, governments in the region could do more to nurture private-sector development, particularly in sectors outside of mining, oil, and gas. Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia have made important strides in improving the business environment, but many still lag behind on several indicators, especially the ease of trading across borders—in such areas as the number of documents, procedures, and days needed to export and import. And the region’s low scores on several widely cited governance indicators show that these governments still have work to do on eliminating corruption.

All of these policies could form part of a longer-term strategy for attracting investment and creating jobs in the region. Such a plan is vital, because growth alone is not enough.

It is also important to focus on delivering appropriate education to fit the needs of the economy. To that end, improving education systems to better equip young people with the skills demanded by the marketplace would help solve the skills mismatch problem, where it exists.

We are currently thinking about the same issue in the context of Zambia as part of our Readers Weekly - here and here. A synthesis from these ongoing discussions will be published in due course. What is interesting is that there's nothing magical suggested by Masood Ahmed, but the starting point is cardinal and this is where the previous MMD government failed when it refused to accept proposed legislation to improve employment statistics. Without data its fruitless to even begin to tackle the problem.

Zambia Budget 2012 - Yellow Book Estimates

2011-11-29T22:00:00.001Z

The comprehensive line by line annual activity 2012 budget as published in the Yellow Book (2049 pages). This is an invaluable resource for anyone who wants to know where the Government money will be going in 2012.

Zambia Budget 2012 Yellow Book of Estimates

Zambia Analysis Magazine

2011-11-28T22:33:00.001Z

A new magazine that shares our vision to inject proper analysis in the public debate. This is not a Zambian Economist project but we are hoping to contribute at least one article per month. We may also recommend some of our contributors to write. This is a good way to expand influence and it's all part of our new vision, "creating a better Zambia, one idea at a time". Embedded below is the November 2011 version, which is going out for free. The magazine is printed as a hard copy and sold in stores across the country. Future versions will be available digitally (by subscription). You can keep in touch with Zambia Analysis via their Facebook page.

Zambia Analysis-2011 11 Web

Corruption Watch (Banda Adminstration), 2nd Edition

2011-11-28T21:53:00.001Z

More revelations of the rampant nepotism and organised plunder that took place under President Banda. The Post is reporting that former Mines Minister Maxwell apparently instructed his ministry officials to favour fellow minister Gabriel Namulambe, then inspector general of police Francis Kabonde and former defence permanent secretary Nicholas Kwendakwema with mining rights contrary to the law.

In a letter signed on December 21, 2010 to the Director of Mines and the Director of Geological Survey, Mr Mwale ordered the two officials to give Gabriel Namulambe, the then Minister of Works and Supply, mining rights for areas in Luapula and North/Western Provinces. In June 29, 2011, Mr Mwale instructed the two officials to favour Mr Kabonde, Dr Kwendakwema and others with mining rights in Mumbwa District, west of Lusaka, in Central Province. More detail via the Post.

A nation that locks up babies, 2nd Edition

2011-11-28T21:35:00.001Z

Deputy Minister of Mother and Child Health Jean Kapata discovered the national hobby of locking up infants in prison is alive and well, during her tour of Lusaka Central Prison last week:

"Our main interest is the children who are in prison because their mothers have been incarcerated. We will sit down with the Ministry of Home Affairs and come up with lasting solutions....the Department of Social Welfare is mandated to look after children who are in prison with their incarcerated mothers and any other vulnerable ones, hence our stake in the prisons".

We have children being born and staying in congested prisons. A shameful situation that we have previously flagged up. At Lusaka Central Prison alone, there are "three boys and three girls and a newly-born baby". This is at a prison which was built in 1924 to hold less than 240 inmates but now has 1,162 inmates. There appears little prospect that the new Government will sort this situation out urgently because for a start issues of related to prison reforms are not in the PF manifesto and never got mentioned in the President's speech.

This practice apart from being a violation of human rights is also economically foolish. We are raising prisoners - how will these children grow up? We are current preparing a paper on juvenile justice addressing this issue and the low minimum age of criminal responsibility.

Mine Watch (Munali)

2011-11-28T21:29:00.001Z

The nation's sole nickel mine, Munali Nickel Mine, which halted operations earlier this month after experiencing cash flow problems, is expected to resume production in January 2012 after completing the ongoing restructuring program. The company expects to get a suitable investment partner to recapitalize the mine by the end of December. More detail via Market Watch.

Readers Weekly : Tujilijili - To Ban or Not to Ban?

2011-11-26T11:51:00.001Z

Tujilijili has apparently become a Zambian obsession especially among youths who use it as a tranquillising drug to "keep their demons at bay". For the uninitiated, Tujilijili is a strong alcohol sold in a sachet for about K500 per sachet. The alcoholic content is over 40 per cent, equivalent to whiskey and other known spirit brands like Vodka. Some have been calling for the drink to be banned but without clearly explaining how such a ban would work (and financed) or indeed the rationale for a ban. This week, Local Government Minister Nkandu Luo said Government will soon make a comprehensive statement onTujilijili.

To delve deeper into this issue, we asked our readers, whether the drink should be banned or alternative regulation is needed. The following is a selected sample of “properly identified" responses :

Mweemba Mwiinde :

No! They should not be banned. The problem is not the quality of the content but rather the packaging. Naturally, liquor should be packaged in big bottles that command a higher price. If anything becomes too affordable, it becomes a problem. Johnnies is as good or bad a Brandy as any other. I have tried it. Problem is it is affordable to all and it is therefore abuses. Consider the company that makes these Tujilijili pays taxes, employes people that have families to feed and educate. What becomes of them?

Mwila Mpundu :

It should be banned! 10 am people are drunk. How do we expect them to be productive? And just too cheap and accessible that even a 10 year old can easily buy it. I once passed by a promotion in Linda Compound and guess the audience that was there? Kids of not more than 13 year old.

Anthony Chanda Chashi :

Its like brandy! Its like vodka! Why are you not talking about banning brandy and vodka as well ? Tujilijili is meant for people who are 18 years old and above. Do not sell alcohol to kids! Whoever is producing that stuff is business savvy and we must learn from them instead of being emotional and force them to close down their business. Every business wants his product to be accessible to the customers in which case 18 years and above drinkers. Lets move on!

Toshi Ndumba :

The problem is not with the manufacturers. Last time Government tried to ban them, it didn't succeed because they met the requirements of alcohol production. Tujilijili is very different from Kachasu because unlike Kachasu these are distilled spirits. The problem here is with the retailers who tend to sell to persons who are under age. These sachets should be sold in places where it's legal to sale them e.g. bars. Instead of banning them, Government should come up with strict regulations on who and where to distribute them.

Sue Clayton :

There is a Liquor Licensing Act Cap 167. The Councils and provincial administrations need to enforce it. The police need to enforce it. The community needs to demand its enforcement. Leaders need to lead. Government has to have a clear policy and keep on the case through all relevant ministries. Schools and colleges/universities need to include personal and social education in their curricula from grade 1 - HIV education should encompass drinking as a high risk behaviour for example. Community programmes need to be used. A holistic approach is the only solution. Banning sachets will not help - there will always be cheap alcohol, drugs, prostitution, etc.

Tiwone Rhodah Mwale :

The issue here is about income and saving the lives of both the young and old! Most people's lives have been destroyed because Tujilijili. Pupils have lost touch with reality. They even drink in class which makes their behaviour worse. With the so called rights they are untouchable! These are the future. With such trends were do we see our country in 40 years? The laws about alcohol are there but if a people comes to buy, will you have interest in their age or your turnover? Crime has escalated because of the same. Let us be real for once. Do you mean to say if you give jobs to these addicts they will perform as expected? No they wont because they will not adhere to regulations, will come late for work, fight, steal, insult, etc.. For a better Zambia please let them package the beverage in larger quantities. If not let them b banned!

Trevor Mwanamuchende :

The level of alcohol consumption in Zambia is very alarming. It seems people have turned alcohol consumption as a form of employment for the young people and the old alike. People are no longer able to differentiate weekends from workdays. How can the nation be productive if beer is taken as breakfast, lunch and supper? Much more so if there is the so called "portable beer"? Besides, there is no nutritional value in alcohol. Non whatsoever!

Aviation Watch (New Routes)

2011-11-26T11:15:00.001Z

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines are entering the Zambia - Europe market, is move that signals greater competition to British Airways dominance. It announced this week that it will make its first flight to Lusaka from Amsterdam on May 15, 2012, using the Airbus A330-200. It will be departing from Schiphol (Airport) on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays at 12:30 hours, arriving in Lusaka the same day at 22:10 hours. The return fligh will depart Lusaka at 23:55 hours on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday nights and arrive in Amsterdam at 09:55 hours the next morning. The new route creates a direct link between Zambia’s flourishing flower industry and the Netherlands, which is the largest junction in the worldwide flower industry. It will also boost the growth of Zambia’s tourism as it offers a wide variety of tourist attractions.

The potential for Zambia to emerge as a credible second aviation hub for the SADC behind South Africa cannot be underestimated. Zambia has a unique geographical advantage that should be harnessed by an effective aviation policy. A key challenge is to ensure that safety remains paramount. Which is why this latest pronouncement by Transport, Works, Supply and Communications Minister Yamfwa Mukanga is much needed. The lack of radar equipment for airports in the  country is not a way to encourage an emerging hub. Similarly, as the Minister has noted in the past, having a stronger domestic carrier is also vital. The best way to do that of course is to follow the models elsewhere in emerging economies where public and private partnerships have ensured a strong aviation industry.

Corruption Watch (Banda Administration)

2011-11-25T00:05:00.000Z

The fight against corruption seems to be gaining momentum as Inspector General Malama uncovers Austin Liato's hidden stash of K2.1bn.

An Economic Sabotage

2011-11-24T20:46:00.001Z

A media report on the ZAMTEL Commission findings :

The Post has some other interesting revelations, including this statement :

"On RP Capital, the recommendation of the commission of inquiry was that a civil lawsuit be immediately instituted to recover the excess fees paid to RP Capital. It also recommended that RP Capital, its affiliates and employees must be immediately barred from conducting business in Zambia. It was also recommended that a civil lawsuit be immediately instituted against RP Capital and Simmons and Simmons for professional misconduct and negligence in qualifying LAP Green despite LAP Green's failing of all the three mandatory prequalification criteria."

How do we bring the informal sector in the fold?

2011-11-24T20:15:00.000Z

"To improve access to economic opportunities and achieve more inclusive growth, policy makers will need to reduce the costs and burdens of entering the formal economy.Changing labor regulations can make it less expensive for employers to hire workers formally.More straightforward rules for establishing and operating a business will encourage entrepreneurs to start businesses on a formal basis. Enforcing the rules fairly and consistently means that firms share not only the responsibilities but also the benefits of operating formally. Simpler tax regulations and stronger administration will complement these reforms. At the same time, workers in the informal sector will need help in acquiring the skills demanded by the formal sector".

IMF's Masood Ahmed on how to bring the informal sector in the fold. The policy suggestions seem fairly sensible and quite obvious. The clear problem for many governments, including our own, is that to tackle informality requires sacrificing today (e.g. through lowering taxes, reducing fees) for larger benefits tomorrow. Governments who are long term minded therefore always do better at tackling informality. The citizens may not always give them that long.

Should Tujilijili be banned?

2011-11-23T23:22:00.001Z

Tujilijili (or Tujiri jiri) is apparently becoming a Zambian obsession especially among youths who use them as a tranquillising drug to "keep their demons at bay". Tujilijili is a strong alcohol sold in a sachet for about K1, 000 per sachet. The alcoholic content is over 40 per cent, equivalent to whiskey and other known spirit brands like vodka and brandy.

There has been some calls for this drink to be banned. This week we are asking - should it be banned? What are the costs and benefits of doing so? How would such a ban be enforced?

A sample of responses from "properly identified persons" will be published under the Readers Weekly column.

Those on Facebook can leave their comments here.

Legal Empowerment

2011-11-22T22:44:00.000Z

A recent piece argues that the fight against poverty cannot be sustainable unless it is accompanied by "legal empowerment". This embodies legal arrangements that create a sustainable between citizens and the state by empowering citizens to hold public institutions accountable. In practice it means ensuring "that laws and policies reside not only in books or courtrooms, but also on the street and in the home, within the grasp of every person". The argument is a variant of Acemoglu - Robinson thesis which says that for poverty to reduce there must be a fundamental redistribution of power within society. Legal empowerment is vital component in that it levels the playing field (if properly done). The lesson for Zambia is that we can't claim to serious about reducing poverty without a well articulated legal and justice reform programme. In my view this remains a large hole in the new Government programme.

Legal Power to the People, Vivek Maru, Project Syndicate, Commentary :

Inspired by Anna Hazare’s hunger strike, thousands of people gathered at Ramlila Grounds in New Delhi to protest governmental corruption. Protesters here and around the country pressed for a specific political change – a new institution to combat corruption– and, in principle, they won. Parliament passed a resolution accepting their demands and is now drafting a bill accordingly.

But the demonstrations were also motivated by a larger aspiration, one that is more difficult to achieve: that the day-to-day workings of government become more accountable, more tied to the citizens whom government is meant to serve.

Two of the great international movements since World War II have arrived at exactly this challenge. The human rights movement has led nearly all countries to endorse human rights norms, at least in name. Organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International can therefore use documentation and public advocacy to shame governments for egregious violations.

But shaming alone cannot address every breach of basic rights: a juvenile is wrongfully detained, a factory poisons a river. There must be a consistent system by which citizens can protect their rights in daily life.

In the parallel movement for economic development, governments and agencies have sought to alleviate poverty by fostering growth and improving essential services like health care and education. But it is increasingly apparent that effective development depends on citizens’ ability to hold public institutions accountable. Governments and donors can build clinics and schools, for example, but the investments are meaningless if the drugs and books aren’t delivered, or if the nurses and teachers don’t show up to work.

The solutions to these problems do not lie in elections or representative democracy alone. They require a substantial, ongoing relationship between citizens and the state. You might call it a matter of “legal empowerment”: of ensuring that laws and policies reside not only in books or courtrooms, but also on the street and in the home, within the grasp of every person.

Realizing that vision requires investment, innovation, and learning across countries.

The hopeful spirit at Ramlila Grounds this August was reminiscent of Barack Obama’s campaign for the American presidency in 2008. But even fervent demonstrators acknowledged that the new Lokpal they demanded – a national ombudsman office – would face some of the same implementation challenges that have dogged India’s existing institutions for accountability.

And while reforms like the Lokpal seek to improve the state’s capacity to provide redress, there is an equal need to bolster citizens’ capacity to seek redress. Conventional legal aid is not always workable; it’s necessary to experiment with more flexible, context-responsive models. Community paralegals, for example, can solve many problems using mediation, advocacy, and education, especially if they’re backed by a smaller corps of public interest lawyers.

The international community should address these challenges by establishing a global fund for legal empowerment. Legal empowerment is a public good: it renders governments more accountable, and makes development more equitable. But unlike public health, for example, states have a natural disincentive to support legal empowerment, because it constrains state power – which is all the more reason for a multilateral financing mechanism.

Social movements in India, the Middle East, the United States, and elsewhere are demanding institutions that promote greater citizen participation and oversight. The challenge of responding to those movements does not belong exclusively to a handful of governments. It belongs to all of us.

Justice that Heals (Guest Blog)

2011-11-21T20:49:00.001Z

It is good that the source of MMD campaign funds is being probed. The excessive use of funds in the election was an insult to our people who are living in overwhelming levels of poverty. Over 60% of Zambians live in abject poverty. It was disheartening to see trees clothed with bright blue campaign materials while those who walked by were dressed in rags.

Many Zambians were confused. How can a political party sponsor such a lavish in a nation where two thirds of its people live in frightening poverty! Where did they get money to buy thousands of bicycles, millions of t-shirts, and dozens of vehicles? Who funded all the buses and where did they get the millions they paid for billboards and state of the art advertising? Many have suggested that two months prior to the elections the MMD was spending more money on their campaign than the government itself.

Investigating the source of campaign funds is important in the development of the Zambian democratic process. The purpose of the probe is to confirm whether those who bank-rolled the campaigns run genuine companies with the capacity to donate the amount of funds it is suggested they donated. If they are not legitimate companies with the capacity to donate then the funds may have been obtained through corruption. This exercise should not just look back but should also inform us how to conduct future elections. One clear lesson learned from the past election is that large donors to political parties should be disclosed. Second, there must be limits placed on how much money individual companies or persons can contribute to a political party during each election.

The purpose of the probe should not be retribution. That said, we are not suggesting “cheap grace”. If corruption or theft of resources from the treasury was committed, those involved must be dealt with according to the law. This must include restitution. However, it must not end there. Since 1996 there has been a perception that the MMD has been abusing state resources during elections. Most believe that since 2001 the MMD has been winning elections by rigging. Therefore, the process we as a nation shall take in probing these abuses can bring both justice and healing. We must work hard to see that new ways of doing politics in Zambia are the result. We need to find ways for the consequences of electoral malpractice to be understood by the offenders and by all Zambians. Additionally, opportunities need to be made for offenders to seek and find forgiveness and reconciliation.

However you look at it, the excessive funds spent on the 2011 elections violated the relationship between poor Zambians and their “leaders”. In this way, the abuse was against the Zambian people, against their children’s education, against their hope to have a decent home, against better health services and against safe water. The excessive use of resources created mistrust in our communities that has now resulted in acts of vengeance behavior by those who were victims. There is need for reconciliation in our communities.

Therefore, we must pray for the fruitfulness of this probe. We should pray that the problems of the current system are identified and a future-oriented focus on problem solving is pursued. If the MMD is found guilty but we fail to answer the questions of why they did this and how we can ensure this doesn’t happen again then the next time around it will be the PF being probed. As a church we must be in the forefront to ensure that the system is not vindictive when applying justice. When Jesus encountered a very corrupt Zacchaeus in Luke 19:1-10 we see Zacchaeus didn’t have it easy after his confession (he paid back four times in restitution), BUT he was restored to God and to the community! The church should desire the same because it is in the business of doing business that heals.

Authorship

Rev Lawrence Temfwe is the Executive Director of Jubilee Centre and National Facilitator of Micah Challenge Zambia. The article forms part of the regular Jubilee Centre's Monday Issue. Please visit the website for more information.

Zambian Economist encourages special contributions from leading thinkers on matters relevant to Zambia's national development. The purpose of these notes is to stimulate discussion and ensure logic and impartial critique plays a leading role in shaping public debate. Special contributions for publications should be submitted via email - cho@zambian-economist.com

Where is the Windfall Tax?

2011-11-21T20:44:00.001Z

Many people were demanding that the Zambian people should benefit from the country’s mineral wealth. They were expecting the PF Government to adequately tax the Mining Sector to generate financial resources in order to provide better roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure. The people were calling for the re-introduction of windfall tax on copper revenue. With copper prices remaining above US$7,000 per tonne, the mines are still gaining unexpected income which is above the planned threshold of US$2,500 to US$3,000 per tonne to make profit. The PF campaigned on the platform of re-introducing the windfall tax. What has changed?

From UPND's assessment of Budget 2012. You can read the rest here.

Konkola Copper Mines Vs. Nyasulu and Others

2011-11-19T15:46:00.001Z

An important High Court ruling where KCM was ordered to pay K10 billion as general and punitive damages to 2, 000 Chingola residents who suffered consequences of the company discharging effluent from its mining operations into Kafue River, the source of their water. The case was actively championed for the people by James Nyasulu Chimkowora.

Konkola Copper Mines Vs Nyasulu and Others

Preventing Corruption and Freedom of Information

2011-11-18T10:52:00.001Z

A recent JCTR article makes the following observations on the link between fighting corruption and the Freedom of Information (FOI) Bill :

Promoting the right to freedom of expression is another way of preventing corruption. This right facilitates participation and it is significant to all the efforts we enlist in our fight against corruption. Government can then make certain that free flow of information is allowed. This would encourage us to denounce corruption cases. Yet since most of the information we may receive is transmitted through reporters and editors, who can be bribed, it may not be enough that we simply advocate for the protection of these rights. Information is vital to preventing corruption. If the people have a right and access to public information, then they can know what is going on in their society and hence be able to freely and actively participate in the fight against corruption. It is for this reason that the Freedom of Information Bill becomes law and be enshrined in the constitution.

There are three fundamental problems with the above assessment.

The first, is that corruption is not uniform. It is not a one size fits all. In many of its pieces the JCTR has a tendency to veer unconsciously from one form of corruption to the next without clarity. It is common to read them and other commentator say, “corruption is on the increase”, without explaining what is actually meant by the term “corruption”. The Laws of Zambia (ACC Act No 42 of 1996) defines corruption as :“the soliciting, accepting, giving or offering of a gratification by way of a bribe or other personal temptation or inducement, or the misuse of abuse of a public office for private advantage or benefit”. This is a broad definition, with several vices falling under the term “corruption”. This includes bribery; public theft; political corruption; wilful mismanagement; and, nepotism. Unless we are precise in our definition of corruption we wont come up with effective solutions to a given problem. More on this in our monthly essay - Understanding Corruption in Zambia.

This brings us to the second problem - not all corruption can be solved by provision of information. The JCTR is right that freedom of information legislation may help prevent "corruption", but only for certain forms of corruption. For example, Freedom of Information wont stop bribery between individuals. Freedom of Information won't stop political corruption. In fact Freedom of Information won't stop nepotism nor indeed public theft. Why? Freedom of information simply requests information from Government. The Government can always refuse to release because it is "sensitive" or because it does not hold the information. Which is usually the case where plunder is involved. The same civil servants who are in charge of answering the FOI request would the same corrupt civil servants who you want to expose. Where information is likely to be useful is where such information allows us to assess "wilful mismanagement". Public spending data is going to be the main form of data we should hope to use FOI for. So perhaps JCTR needs to revist its demand for this legislation, if corruption fighting is all it has in mind.

Finally, conflating FOI and corruption clouds the broader needs for FOI.The call for FOI is better grounded in terms of "right" language and general expectations of transparency. The argument should be that people have a "right" to information that the Government holds about them and the money it spends. It should also be emphasised that democratic maturity must come with greater openness. But to argue that FOI will reduce corruption is folly because of the multifaceted nature of corruption and also because it takes more than an FOI request to convict a corrupt official.

But even as the JCTR agitates for FOI they must be balanced in their assessment. The article does not mention the huge costs associated with Freedom of Information e.g. resource costs (some has to handle your query), IT / computerisation equipment (need I say more?) and biggest of them all the need for an Information Regulator. A whole new office dedicated to ensure your requests are being taken serious. Incidentally, as with every new legislation, where parties disagree the matter ends up in court (more cases for the Judiciary to handle on top the corruption cases). It might be that on the balance the social benefits of freedom of information outweigh the costs, but we should not overlook the costs involved as we debate these issues. A balanced assessment is needed informed by real numbers. Will the real JCTR please stand up?

The Rise of African Aviation

2011-11-17T15:48:00.001Z

A recent piece argues that despite lacklustre safety records and incomplete liberalisation, air travel in Africa is showing signs of taking off. This does appear to the case - we are beginning to see African airlines now competing in the long haul market (where returns are high). African airlines are acquiring new widebody airliners at a greater rate than the global airline average. Last year, 32 per cent of African airline demand was for widebodies, as against 23 per cent for the global industry. This has led to new routes. In 2006, there were only 32 weekly flights involving just eight city pairs between the whole of Africa and the USA. By last year, these figures had jumped to 67 weekly flights between 14 city pairs. And a lot of these flights were by African airlines. An area for expansion is Europe - Africa pair where European legacy carriers continue to dominate through restriction of appropriate land slots and lobbying African governments at the expense of African carriers. Unfortunately, the article does not touch on these issues - but still worth a read.

African Airlines Braced for Takeoff, Pauline Sabatini, Think Africa Press, Commentary :

On July 8 2011 a Hewa Bora Airways aircraft, operated by a private Congolese company, crashed in bad weather after missing the runway at Kisangani airport, killing 127 people. Although blacklisted by the EU and the US, Hewa Bora had long been considered the best of the DRC’s airlines, but this means little in a country which holds the world record for aircraft crashes.

Events such as this add to the already tarnished image of African airlines and it is commonly agreed by industry professionals and observers that safety must be the first priority for the development of African aviation. Beyond the negative public image, surprising results and optimism characterise the African air travel sector, which is growing at well above the world average with an estimated annual growth of 6 to 7% for the next 15 years. The sector is also undergoing major changes in its regulation, just as an increasing number of players have moved in to attempt to benefit from the opportunities of this growing market. Air travel is the number one transport mode for international travel in Africa but it is still the case that 70% of the traffic between Africa and the rest of the world is carried on non-African airlines.

The main drivers in the growth of air traffic are the rise of an African middle class who travel for personal reasons, and an increase in business trips, particularly relating to the oil sector. The International Air Travel Association (IATA) reports that “increasing trade and investment links with Asia helped boost the Africa to Far East market, with growth of 17% in premium travel during the year and 21% growth in economy travel”, while the weakening links with Europe are reflecting this change in trade structure. However, growth is not guaranteed. For example, travel to North Africa has fallen in the last few months due to the continued political unrest. Royal Air Maroc, Tunisair and Afriqiyah Airways are struggling as a result.

As passenger numbers rise, airfreight also continues to grow in importance, with figures from July 2011 showing 8.4% growth from 2010. This is a considerable rise and even compares favourably with the excellent results of the Middle East. The air freight market is showing signs of renewed expansion in relation to the increasing trade with Asia, largely fostered by oil and ore exports and imports of telecommunication equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods. According to Boeing’s Market Outlook “West Africa, buoyed by foreign interest in petroleum development, shows the strongest growth on the continent”, although some concerns have emerged that the 2011 freight growth forecast may have been overestimated.

The African air travel sector started its transformation in 1999 with the signatures of 44 countries paving the way for a pan-African treaty for the liberalisation, deregulation and opening up of regional air transport markets. More than ten years later the ideals of what is now known as the Yamoussoukro Decision are still only partially achieved, and few countries have truly proven their commitment, among them Uganda and Togo.

These first steps toward an “open sky” policy in Africa were followed by positive changes: large companies took over small airlines and concentrated in main hubs before developing subsidiary companies or partnerships to create more complete networks. Partnerships, working in more isolated regions, were responsible for increasing the passenger flow to larger airports in order to benefit the main airlines. A good example is the Lomé-based Asky Airlines, launched in January 2010 and taking advantage of the liberalisation of the Togolese sector. A subsidiary company of Ethiopian Airlines, Asky now covers 19 destinations and its directors have already announced very satisfying results.

In Uganda the open policy has resulted in the continued growth of air services in both passengers and cargo: the freight sector experienced a 42.7% increase in 2011 despite the fact that the Ugandan national carrier was closed down by the government.

This strategy of opening markets has led to growth but has also had some considerable drawbacks. Small African carriers have multiplied, leading to a decrease in travel prices for passengers, which in turn has weakened airlines which have to bear unchanged high operating cost. Liberalisation has also led companies to neglect non-profitable travel lines which deprives isolated zones of air transport.

With a shortage of sub-Saharan hubs, African flights often have to stop in European airports despite a strong demand for non-stop routes between Africa and other continents. Direct intra-Africa flights between some major cities are still impossible or overpriced.

The issue of access to the air market is particularly relevant in Africa where almost one-third of countries on the continent are landlocked and road transportation is still slow and unreliable due to geographic specificities, political instabilities and a lack of infrastructures. In Nigeria, for example, air travel is by far the easiest way to go between Lagos and Abuja, in the absence of high quality, safe and fast roads or a functioning rail network. Air traffic is a potentially valuable lever for both local and international economic activities. Trade in Africa is highly sensitive to transportation cost and some reports have estimated that a 10% reduction in transport costs could increase trade by 25%.

A fast transport system is crucial for production strategies concerning perishable goods, such as the Kenyan cut flower industry. Exportation of cut flowers, mainly to Europe, represents one of the country’s largest industries and is its second biggest foreign exchange generator. Other time-sensitive and high-value exports such as exotic fruits, seafood or meat also rely heavily on fast and reliable transport at a global scale.

Despite the importance of efficiency, it is widely admitted that the current priority for a reliable air transport sector in Africa must be safety. It has been proven that “poor safety oversight results in more expensive insurance premiums and the inability to develop code sharing and other business arrangements. It also scares away potentially high-yield international customers and potential private sector investors”. African airlines have to improve on several key points such as the age of their fleets, ground level infrastructure and training and maintenance. Where infrastructure is concerned, regional differences appear between North Africa - where 60% of the airports were found to be in excellent condition by a World Bank report in 2009, and sub-Saharan Africa, where only 17% received the same score. Training is a crucial element in this, and many African airports often fail not only in the quality of their training but in their ability to retain qualified workers attracted by lucrative Middle Eastern job offers.

In countries where the road, railway and port infrastructure does not offer efficient transportation, air transport represents a great potential lever for development. Despite liberalisation policies being only partially implemented, the African air sector is showing encouraging results.

Is Chinese farming history misapplied in Africa?

2011-11-17T13:38:00.000Z

A fascinating article looking at what if any Africa should be learning from China's agriculture history. It naturally concludes that "this is not the first time that sub-Saharan Africa has been sold a set of flawed policies based on a misreading of another region's history and experiences". And therefore, there's need for "Africa's leaders ought to carefully study their comparative world history before accepting this advice".

China's Farming History Misapplied in Africa, William G. Moseley, IPS, Commentary :

As sub-Saharan Africa grapples with high food prices in some regions and famine in others, many experts argue that increasing food production through a programme of hybrid seeds and chemical inputs is the way to go.

This approach, marketed as a "New Green Revolution" for Africa, is increasingly supported by a triumphant telling of China's history with this method in the 1970s and 1980s. This Chinese success story is not only distorted, but it is being misapplied in Africa.

China's Great Famine of 1958-1961 reportedly killed 36 million people. This was a seminal moment for the country and, from that point forward, producing enough food would be a major priority. China would subsequently increase grain production dramatically between 1960 and 2000, with wheat output increasing eightfold, exiling the ghost of famine to the margins of that country's collective social imagination.

According to many Chinese and Western observers, these stunning productivity increases were due to two factors. First, the Chinese aggressively embraced a Green Revolution approach. They would both borrow hybrid seeds from the West and develop their own such technologies.

Furthermore, they would massively increase nitrogen fertiliser production by importing manufacturing technology, eventually becoming the world's largest producer of these agricultural inputs.

Second, the Chinese adopted a series of more market-oriented reforms from the late 1970s, allowing for the decentralisation and decollectivisation of agriculture, as well as a rise in producer prices.

Now experts from some the world's major development institutes and organisations are arguing that sub-Saharan Africa ought to follow the Chinese example in the realm of agricultural development. They not only suggest that this will increase food production, but that it will build a foundation for future industrial development.

The high cost of low prices

While a renewed focus on African agriculture is welcome (as this is an area that has been ignored for more than 20 years), this particular telling of the Chinese success story is distorted, and the type of agricultural development being promoted is problematic.

While Chinese agricultural production did, indeed, increase dramatically from 1960 to 2000, it was done at great environmental and social cost. China now faces stagnating production and declining yields, which are most likely related to soil degradation - due to, among other factors, the overuse of nitrogen fertilisers.

Untold is the fact that China had been seriously exploring a bio-intensive path to increasing agricultural production up until about 1972, when it began to gradually open up to the West. From that point forward, the Green Revolution approach would take precedence.

Furthermore, while the agricultural reforms of the late 1970s and 1980s did allow some peasants to produce more crops, these reforms also led to dramatic increases in inequality in the Chinese countryside.

The current reality is that a rapidly urbanising China is experiencing major shifts in dietary patterns. With increasing prosperity comes increasing consumption of meat, and a greater need for grain to feed these animals. With stagnating grain production, China needs to find other sources of food around the world.

Green revolution in Africa?

By pushing for a "New Green Revolution" in Africa, both China and the West are clear winners. Many Chinese commentators view sub-Saharan Africa as under-populated and land-rich. As such, enhancing agricultural productivity on the continent means that it will have more food to export to China, which increasingly needs such imports.

Moreover, the U.S. is home to some of the world's major seed companies and agrochemical firms. By encouraging an input-intensive approach to agriculture dependent upon imported technology, U.S. firms are destined to profit.

Most egregious are long-term leases of land (or "land grabs") in sub-Saharan Africa to foreign entities (often sovereign wealth funds of Middle Eastern, North African or Asian countries, as well as Western hedge funds) for the production of agricultural goods for export. These deals are often "sold" to local publics as a source of employment and as a means to bring the New Green Revolution to sub-Saharan Africa.

The reality is that these leases (often for 50 years or more) essentially allow other regions of the world to export their food insecurity to Africa, or for Western investors to profit from a decade-long trend of steadily increasing global food prices.

While China and the West benefit from this New Green Revolution strategy, it is not clear if the same is true for small farmers and poor households in sub-Saharan Africa.

For most food-insecure households on the continent, there are at least two problems with this strategy. First, such an approach to farming is energy-intensive, as most fertilisers and pesticides are petroleum-based. Inducing poor farmers to adopt energy-intensive farming methods is short-sighted, if not unethical, if experts know that global energy prices are likely to rise.

Second, irrespective of energy prices, the "New Green Revolution" approach requires farmers to purchase seeds and inputs, which means that it will be inaccessible to the poorest of the poor, who are the most likely to suffer from periods of hunger.

If not the New Green Revolution approach, then what? Many forms of bio-intensive agriculture are, in fact, highly productive and much more efficient than those of industrial agriculture.

For example, crops grown in intelligent combinations allow one plant to fix nitrogen for another rather than relying solely on increasingly expensive, fossil fuel-based inorganic fertilisers for these plant nutrients. Mixed cropping strategies are also less vulnerable to insect damage and require little to no pesticide use for a reasonable harvest.

These techniques have existed for centuries in the African context and could be greatly enhanced by supporting participatory collaboration between local people, African research institutes and foreign scientists.

This is not the first time that sub-Saharan Africa has been sold a set of flawed policies based on a misreading of another region's history and experiences. In the early 1980s, international financial institutions convinced African nations to adopt neoliberal economic reforms based, in part, on a particular telling of the economic history of the Newly Industrialised Countries (NICs) and the Asian Tigers.

African countries were told to focus on exports as the NICs had done, and that a free-market approach was required to reach that end.

What international advisers conveniently neglected to mention was that the export success of the Asian Tigers was also due to generous government support and intervention (and not the free market).

Now China is being held up as an Asian Agricultural Tiger for the nations of sub-Saharan Africa to emulate. Africa's leaders ought to carefully study their comparative world history before accepting this advice.

A crisis of economics?

2011-11-15T20:48:00.000Z

A recent piece suggests that the current crisis of capitalism has exposed the need for big picture economics. Until economics revisits its roots, it will fail to come up with an alternative economic system to replace capitalism. There are three problems with the basic thesis as presented. First, many economists pretty much think from a systems perspective. It seems to me that what policy makers take on board is not always aligned with how economists think day to day. Second, the word "capitalism" does not help because what we have is not pure capitalism as narrowly understood. Finally, it is not immediately clear that the real revolution needed is in economics. A strong case can be made that the crisis is much about the crisis of "democracy" than it is about economics. The events taking place will leave their lasting impact not so much on economic thinking but on how individuals in the western world relate to their governments. With those caveats, see the essay below :

Wanted: Worldly Philosophers, RogerBackhouse & Bradley Bateman, New York Times, Commentary :

It's become commonplace to criticize the “Occupy” movement for failing to offer an alternative vision. But the thousands of activists in the streets of New York and London aren’t the only ones lacking perspective: economists, to whom we might expect to turn for such vision, have long since given up thinking in terms of economic systems — and we are all the worse for it.

This wasn’t always the case. Course lists from economics departments used to be filled with offerings in “comparative economic systems,” contrasting capitalism and socialism or comparing the French, Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon models of capitalism.

Such courses arose in the context of the cold war, when the battle with the Soviet Union was about showing that our system was better than theirs. But with the demise of the Soviet Union, that motivation disappeared. Globalization, so it is claimed, has created a single system of capitalism driven by international competition (ignoring the very real differences between, say, China and the United States). We now have an economics profession that hardly ever discusses its fundamental subject, “capitalism.”

Many economists say that what matters are questions like whether markets are competitive or monopolistic, or how monetary policy works. Using broad, ill-defined notions like capitalism invites ideological grandstanding and distracts from the hard technical problems.

There is a lot in that argument. Economists do much better when they tackle small, well-defined problems. As John Maynard Keynes put it, economists should become more like dentists: modest people who look at a small part of the body but remove a lot of pain.

However, there are also downsides to approaching economics as a dentist would: above all, the loss of any vision about what the economic system should look like. Even Keynes himself was driven by a powerful vision of capitalism. He believed it was the only system that could create prosperity, but it was also inherently unstable and so in need of constant reform. This vision caught the imagination of a generation that had experienced the Great Depression and World War II and helped drive policy for nearly half a century. He was, as the economist Robert Heilbroner claimed, a “worldly philosopher,” alongside such economic visionaries as Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill and Karl Marx.

In the 20th century, the main challenge to Keynes’s vision came from economists like Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman, who envisioned an ideal economy involving isolated individuals bargaining with one another in free markets. Government, they contended, usually messes things up. Overtaking a Keynesianism that many found inadequate to the task of tackling the stagflation of the 1970s, this vision fueled neoliberal and free-market conservative agendas of governments around the world.

THAT vision has in turn been undermined by the current crisis. It took extensive government action to prevent another Great Depression, while the enormous rewards received by bankers at the heart of the meltdown have led many to ask whether unfettered capitalism produced an equitable distribution of wealth. We clearly need a new, alternative vision of capitalism. But thanks to decades of academic training in the “dentistry” approach to economics, today’s Keynes or Friedman is nowhere to be found.

Another downside to the “dentistry” approach to economics is that important pieces of human experience can easily fall from sight. The government does not cut an abstract entity called “government spending” but numerous spending programs, from veterans’ benefits and homeland security to Medicare and Medicaid. To refuse to discuss ideas such as types of capitalism deprives us of language with which to think about these problems. It makes it easier to stop thinking about what the economic system is for and in whose interests it is working.

Perhaps the protesters occupying Wall Street are not so misguided after all. The questions they raise — how do we deal with the local costs of global downturns? Is it fair that those who suffer the most from such downturns have their safety net cut, while those who generate the volatility are bailed out by the government? — are the same ones that a big-picture economic vision should address. If economists want to help create a better world, they first have to ask, and try to answer, the hard questions that can shape a new vision of capitalism’s potential.

From China with abuse

2011-11-14T19:59:00.001Z

"I asked, “What have I done wrong?” and [the supervisor] replied, “Don’t you know you’re not supposed to talk, you’re a slave.” [My boss] and his supervisor spoke in Chinese for several minutes, and then he said I was fired. After being fired, I went to the safety officer and took him to the workplace. Then I went to see the HR [human resources] officer, who confirmed that he had been to the site where the problem started. He was very defensive of the Chinese, he didn't even address the issue of working near the fire without fire safety equipment. HR told me to go home, that they would finish their investigations. I have taken the case to court..."

From a new hard hitting report on the human rights abuse of Chinese companies in Zambia. Sadly, all of this is nothing new to many of our readers. Nevertheless it is useful to have a report that independently brings to these issues. The recommendations there are also useful, particularly the need to increase monetary fines and increase capacity at the Ministry of Mines in relation to safety.

Constitution and Media Reform

2011-11-14T18:30:00.000Z

An interesting and balanced Op'ed in the Post on constitutional and media reform by Sichuwa Sichuwa :

Constitutional and media reforms, Sishuwa Sishuwa, The Post, Commentary :

Last week, a wall of silence over the constitution-making process and public media reforms was broken by two major official pronouncements from senior government officials. One was from Minister of Justice Sebastian Zulu who proffered that the constitution-making process will take more than ninety days, contrary to the PF slogan of completing the process within that period of coming to power.

Zulu also said that President Michael Sata is in the process of appointing a Committee of Experts to oversee the entire process. Later during the same week, Vice-President Guy Scott told parliament that the government is in the process of partially privatising the public but state-controlled media.

Although there is a dispute over the actual figure to be floated to the public for purchase - The Post suggested that it was 35 per cent while the Zambia Daily Mail put the figure at 45 per cent - there is consensus on the fact that the government will still retain over 50 per cent control. What do we make out of these two major pronouncements on constitutional and media reforms?

First, the pronouncements put to rest the anxieties that had been raised by both the public and opposition political parties over the past few weeks with regards to the government's commitment to initiating and completing both set of significant reforms.

While many expected President Sata to prolong and pervert the constitutional reform process for exactly the same reason as did his predecessors, the fact that the policy positions of the new government on these two important issues have just come out within the first two months in office is comforting.

The Patriotic Front (PF) manifesto which captured the imagination of many people during the campaigns for the landmark September 20 elections gave priority to the remaking of the constitution within ninety days and the freeing of the public media from the control of government, the ruling party and State House. That the government has now moved to reaffirm its commitment to implementing its progressive manifesto is most encouraging.

On the issue of the public media, we have already witnessed a positive change from what existed in the previous administration of Rupiah Banda. For instance, the opening up of Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) airwaves and the two public newspapers to the political lips of opposition leaders like United Party for National Development (UPND)'s Hakainde Hichilema and Heritage Party's Godfrey Miyanda, platforms which they previously lacked or were denied, may threaten President Sata and the PF's hold on to power.

But they are progressive moves over which the ruling party is likely to reap electoral rewards, in the long term, and must be commended, though full commendation should only be given after the enactment of the necessary reforms that will entirely free the public media.

Second, the pronouncements reveal the complex terrain of transitions and reforms. Zulu's statement that more time is to be devoted to the making of a new constitution outside the ninety days mantra is a reality check and suggests that it is one thing to promise something while you are still in the opposition and another to implement it when you are in government.

In other words, there is a difference in attitude between a party in government and one in opposition. Those who had followed the constitutional debate would not have been surprised at this rather expected change. It was known that if the experts say a constitution cannot be completed within ninety days, that had to be respected, and then it ceases to be a problem of Sata and the ruling party. For in as much as they would have probably liked to complete the process within the original time frame, they have to take into account the professional views of the experts.

The opposition UPND and Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) have criticised the decision by the government to prolong the constitution-making process to more than ninety days, arguing that its extension violates the ruling party's pledge to the voters in the run-up to the last elections, and questioned the government's commitment to delivering a good constitution.

PF secretary general Wynter Kabimba has since then moved to assure Zambians that the ruling party remains committed to delivering a people driven constitution to the nation. While it is the role of opposition political parties to offer checks and balances to the government of the day, it is equally their role to support progressive initiatives and moves of the government as opposed to being wedded to criticism even where unnecessary. The more they talk even where silence is golden, the more they might actually diminish their appeal in the eyes of the electorate and the court of public opinion.

The announcement that the constitution-making process will take more than ninety days is a welcome and progressive move. There is no need to rush the process if we are to produce a lasting document that will reflect the will of the people as submitted to various constitutional review commissions over the years.

There is the question of carefully appointing the Committee of Experts that will be tasked with studying, synthesising, analysing and coming up with a draft document for presentation to the public via a referendum. This will certainly require time. Then there is a question of whether or not the whole constitution deserves to be replaced or simply amended. Is the present constitution entirely bad or are there some progressive clauses that can be maintained? What have been the experiences in the past? What are the most pressing issues? What is there that needs to be removed? What additions ought to be made?

Controversial ones like the running mate (which goes with the parentage clause), the 50 per cent + 1, coalition building, the question of appointing MPs from outside parliament, the dual citizenship clause, reduction of presidential powers, the issue of transition (handover of power from one president to the other) after an election, and the funding of political parties in parliament deserve time.

Another crucial topic is one of proportional representation. We should be mindful of the fact that ordinarily proportional representation and the presidential system do not go together though we may wish to craft our own system or pattern. Not least important is the fact that a referendum will also require a fully-fledged election, if the present constitution is to be followed, though we may easily get around this issue without an election since we are coming from one.

Yes, it is possible to have a new constitution within ninety days if all we seek is to have a few additions, though again this should be subject of discussion. However, if we require a whole ‘new' constitution, then more time is not an option but an obligation. The extension is necessary if we are to produce a constitution that will result from a robust scrutiny, intelligent debate, wide consensus and sober reflections.

Unless of course the ninety days will be effective the day that the Committee of Experts to be instituted begins sitting, as constitutional lawyer John Sangwa suggested recently, though his is certainly not the calculation deployed by many. It is for this reason that government must be commended for extending the process. To give full marks to the government for its departure from the original time frame is neither an attempt to heap praise on the establishment before the process has even taken off nor a desire to silence the opposition parties and civil society groups that have criticised the extension.

While the move is welcome, there is need for the government to ensure that the extension is not abused or unlimited. Apart from guaranteeing or issuing a clearer roadmap with strict deadlines for the commencement and completion of the constitutional making project, the team around Sata should avoid the mistakes of the MMD that left the process open-ended without a clear time frame, wasting a lot of public resources in the process, if it is to be more credible.

The final point of discussion here is the issue of the partial privatisation of the public media. Though in principle warmly welcomed, the move require both the government and the public to act very cautiously with regards to how they proceed. The government must not dance to the tune of the public and the public must not be quick to criticise or praise the government without a deep reflection and analysis of the implications of the move.

Unless the idea was inserted towards the end, the issue of partial privatisation of the public media was neither in the manifesto of the PF nor in the ninety days mantra. The government should therefore feel no urge to quicken the process and move in this direction due to pressure from the public when so many variables remain absent. Instead, the government should locate the issue of the public media within the broader context of improving and implementing the Freedom of Information Bill, Independent Broadcasting Authority (IBA) and the ZNBC amendment Acts.

The latter two pieces of legislation were actually passed by the MMD administration in 2010 in what appears to have been a non-transparent manner. Clearly at the time, there was no public outcry, at least the kind we would have expected, given the fact that the Acts reverse the very legislative reforms many people including the new Speaker of the National Assembly, Patrick Matibini, so arduously fought for.

A careful reading and analysis of the Acts reveal that they place the power to regulate broadcasting back into the hands of the Ministry of Information, Broadcasting & Tourism, resulting in the regulatory monotheism that the original Acts of 2002 sought to abolish. Worse is the fact that watchdog institutions like Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA) Zambia and Press Association of Zambia (PAZA) are suddenly very inactive, perhaps still caught up in the long queue of those who wish to convey their congratulations to the new government or who are reluctant to offer criticism, no matter how constructive, because it is deemed too early.

The general civil society movement may not be alive to this legislative 'ambush' by the MMD government. So, clearly, there is need for thee PF government to relook at these pieces of legislation and address their shortcomings.

Lessons ought to be learnt from the past. According to the original MMD manifesto, the state media, which had previously been abused by the then ruling party and the Kenneth Kaunda government, should have been privatised as a priority after 1991.

Instead, the opposite was done, with increased government and ruling party control, so that the media became far much unprofessional, unbelievable and derided. There are lessons inherent in this and the government would do well to conduct thorough research before making any further hasty pronouncements and moves. While the idea by the PF government of returning to the original objective of an independent press is welcome, the approach must be treated with caution.

The proposed 35 per cent (or is it 45 per cent?) private investment means that government control of the public media would continue, and is simply a formula for continuation of the status quo. Where is the incentive for investors to put in ‘more money' into the pockets of medium whose editorial policy is controlled by the government and which, when the government becomes unpopular, as governments inevitably do, might become increasingly repellent to the average citizen?

What does the government aim to do with the remaining majority percentage? What is the government putting in? How are they going to make the shares attractive to be bought? How much work was done by the government to come up with what they announced? How did they deal with practical issues? What research was carried out? What challenges are the public media facing? Is partial privatisation the best way of dealing with those challenges? These and many other questions have to be answered.

As things stand, and however sincere and good the move might be, I am sceptical to imagine that many people would take the risk of investing in an entity in which they don't have control and are not aware of the sharing formula, especially if that the 35/45 per cent is likely to go to go different individuals. If the government still wishes to go ahead with the idea, I would propose two options. First, it should sell all or majority of the shares (at least 51 per cent) to the public and retain nothing or less control of the public media. This won't' be unique to Zambia.

The South Africa government, for instance, does not have any control in or of the print media industry. Second, the government should shelve the idea and instead recapitalise the public media until it begins to make profits and is widely seen to be independent, backed by a healthy legal machinery. Only then should the government consider the idea of bringing the public on board, if they cannot sell the entire public media for now.

Zambia Budget 2012

2011-11-11T18:46:00.001Z

The Finance Minister, Hon Alexander Chikwanda delivered the Budget Statement today. Further analysis to follow, but key changes appears to be the increase in tax exemption on PAYE; increase in mineral royalty taxation; and, general re-prioritisation of spending on the four priority sectors identified in the recent President Speech. There's also commitment to the usual fiscal and monetary arrangements. Those interested in taxation only should see Budget Highlights. The rest should regard this as compulsory reading over the weekend! [Those on handheld devices who want a word version should drop us an email - cho@zambian-economist.com]

2012 Budget Address by Hon Chikwanda

Zambia 2012 Budget Highlights

Skills Training in Zambia

2011-11-10T04:00:00.000Z

Former Minister Abel Chambeshi has an interesting Op'ed that calls for increased skills training through introduction of a training levy. The idea had allegedly been tried and opposed in the past, but the renewed quest to tackle unemployment may see the idea back on the table. Unfortunately, the article does not explore the downside of such an approach, including being a de-facto taxes on business. That said, the idea of a sustainable fund for skills and training is attractive, though the benefits to contributing businesses themselves are somewhat overstated. The idea is better coined from a national angle rather than trying to justify that this is in the interests of the businesses.

The call for increased training in Zambia, Abel M.Chambeshi, Times of Zambia, Commentary :

It is so refreshing to hear His Excellency Mr Michael Sata include Skills training and self employment for young Entrepreneurs, as primary tasks that will occupy the attention of his administration during his term of office.

This is as it should be, considering the fact that at present, only 3% of the population are in formal employment. It means that 97%of our people are either in informal employment or are simply idle, unemployed.

Many find it difficult to understand why there should be such a high level of idle hands in a country renowned for plentiful natural resources: copper, forests, water bodies, agriculture land, other minerals etc.

Such a contradiction has characterised many developing nations since their Independence from colonial rule. The continuation of such contradiction has fuelled instability in he Government of third world nations and it has spawned debate on various kinds of alleged solutions.

Some of the proposals for solving these contradictions came from the ex- Colonial Masters themselves under the guise of international NGOs and through various programmes aligned with their ministries of foreign affairs.

Sadly, rarely have the affected countries themselves found the courage to try out self tailored solutions.

This is partly because external assistance tended to come with reward for good studentship, thereby creating a climate of custom and habit: ”Do what the teacher instructs, and you will be rewarded with more help,” that is more soft loans, more technical experts, more aid.

For some strange reason, it did not appear ridiculous to us as indigenous technocrats that even rich countries like Zambia should have for many years to queue up for foreign aid to finance many of our developmental efforts.

We quickly forgot what Haile Sellassie of Ethiopia warned us against in the 1960s when he said: “Those who seek independence must be prepared to fight for it rather than accept it (on a silver platter), and having won it, to stand on their own feet without dependence or without favours…” of course as time progressed, world Governance systems changed: United Nations programmes have slowly replaced donor- tailored bilateral Aid schemes (Cf.the millennium Development Goals).

Of the UN-initiated or UN funded programmes themselves cannot be expected to be fail –proof; a better approach,i.e local or home grow-grown programmes, stand a better chance of success because of the aspect “ownership” in the operation of such programmes .

It was against this background that in the year 2000 the top management of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Vocational Training, were alarmed at being informed by the then minister of Finance that (SAP) funding to vocational training would progressively be reduced and that henceforth, the burden of funding skills training would fall on the shoulders of parents and the end -users of the training product.

Admittedly, skills’ training is expensive; Training centres require professionally trained instructors, they require imported training aides/equipment, and sometimes an internationally accredited examination system.

If you are catering for hundreds of training centres scattered all over a big country like Zambia, the cost of doing so could run in to billions of kwacha, annually.

And for the output of quality graduates to make an impact on the economy of a (middle income!) country, one would require massive funding, on a rolling basis, year- in year out.

Training, being a long term investment, can take years to show fruits in form of quality manufactured goods and services. So, which average investor can agree to wait say five years before receiving the fruits of the investment?

Cases abound where individual employers after spending millions of kwacha training technicians, end up losing such scarce assets to other employers as the staff leave to look for greener pastures.

Evidently therefore, such investment need to be undertaken jointly, Government together with other stakeholders –including the trainees themselves.

This is how the ministry of science and technology arrived at the solution of a training fund.

The ministry asked TEVETA to popularize the idea of a contributory training fund, so that trainees, employees, as well as all employers employing a labour force of above 20 could all contribute minimum amounts each month to a training fund.

The World bank graciously promised seed money amounting to $10 million and learning trips to Malaysia by staff of the ministry, and many useful lessons were learnt on how Malaysia built up an enviable reserve of artisans, technicians and technologists, how that country developed its manufacturing capacity, and how it declared (vision 2030)….that by the year 2030 Malaysia could catch up with the rest of the developed countries!

Their training fund is now probably the richest single repository of people’s savings in its class in the Far East.

When we came back home to Zambia we tried and sell the idea of a contributory training fund, many stake holders were up in arms.

At a sensitasation meeting held at Mulungushi conference centre, one manufacturers’ representative (a naturalised Zambian) said they had enough taxes, the application of which was corrupt and off target.

The labour unions themselves were un-enthusiastic about the proposed training levy and teamed up with employers to kill the proposal.

Today, some nine years down the road President Sata is talking about the need to turn all ZNS centres in to centres for skills training. This is an excellent idea, but when we come down to discussing how to fund these centres, let us not get stuck in to the quagmire of the pros and cons of training levy, if indeed a general levy will be the best route by which a large scale skills training effort can be financed. Good things don’t come cheap!

It will not be ZNS centres alone requiring additional funding; it will be all the traditional skills training centres, the likes of NORTEC, ZIBSIP, Nkumbi international college, Monze College of agriculture,etc,-both public and private. And the punch line is that it can be done! If they did it, why cant we….!

I pity my elder brother President Sata –old as he is, he has come in to the Presidency at a historic moment when, through his enthusiasm and characteristic taunting and challenging vibes, he has awaken an age- old monster within the hearts of poor citizenry.

In Zambia though, the skills training our leaders are talking about is one cutting across all the class of society, not just the marginalised and disadvantaged.

This therefore is the time for all Zambians to show their patriotism: support PF’s skills training plan, Aluta, continua!

2011 Human Development Report

2011-11-09T04:00:00.000Z

The UN released recently released its new edition of its human development index (HDI) report. The HDI represents a push for a broader definition of well-being and provides a composite measure of three basic dimensions of human development: health, education and income. Zambia's HDI is 0.430, which gives puts us at the rank of 164 out of 187 countries with comparable data. The HDI of Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is 0.463, placing Zambia below the regional average.

You can access the Zambia report here.

Collective Repentance

2011-11-08T22:05:00.004Z

The Times of Zambia acknowledges its shameful behaviour in recent past :

It is no exaggeration to State that the public media, which is expected to act as public watchdogs so as to strengthen checks and balances, has often been mocked by critics as Government lapdogs because of its servile attitude.

In the recent past, the two State-owned dailies—the Times of Zambia and Zambia Daily Mail-- became conduits of crude and grotesque propaganda emanating from the MMD and targeting the most popular opposition figure at the time, who triumphed in the presidential election. The litany of unethical and unprofessional practices that have been documented is long. Suffice it to say that the current ownership pattern of the public media has eroded professionalism and undermined the country’s democratic dispensation. This situation has to be reversed to restore credibility and lend credence to the whole concept of “public media.” If the concept of public media is to have real meaning, the ownership has to reflect the diversity of our country.

Political pluralism would be rendered a farce without a media freed from the encumbrances of State ownership, and enjoying unfettered freedom to check the politicians’propensity to abuse power. Once the envisaged reforms are implemented, we believe the public media would be better positioned to play its role in a democratic political set-up such as the one which obtains in Zambia. In the broadcasting sector, we strongly believe that the national broadcaster, ZNBC, should similarly be transformed into a public broadcaster along the same lines as the BBC in the United Kingdom. Government monopoly in the media sector is a carry-over from the old political order during single party rule. This is incompatible with the current democratic dispensation and, therefore, untenable.

It is refreshing to read such an honest examination. But more important is that the Times of Zambia recognises the intrinsic link between ownership and media independence. The current Government is to be commended for taking a bold step in this direction, though questions still remain on the details. In particular, there's need to avoid a piece meal approach to media reform. We need a White Paper on media policy that can be consulted on and then decisions should be made. In the mean time, its great to have our papers back!

A lost precious stones industry, 2nd Edition

2011-11-08T21:11:00.003Z

Minister of Mines Wilbur Simuusa last week suggested that Zambia has the capacity to earn about US$700 million from the precious stones market. That dwarfs any amount being collected currently from copper mining. In his words, "The gemstone sector can contribute about US$700 million if properly managed…Government will ensure that sanity is brought in the sector...We want to put the sector in motion. Firstly, there is need to revive the semi precious and precious stones association to boost growth of the sector..". For further discussion of the current problems facing the precious stones industry, see the first edition.

Wider benefits of education

2011-11-08T20:59:00.000Z

A recent VoX EU piece reviews a growing body of literature that points to the wider benefits of education e.g. reduction in crime rates, improvement in health and greater civic participation. Unfortunately much of the evidence is US based, but useful nevertheless.

The impacts of education on crime, health and mortality, and civic participation, Lance Lochner, Project Syndicate, Commentary :

Given recent budget problems around the world, many governments have proposed sharp cuts to education. What are the likely long-run costs of these cuts? Growing evidence suggests that the lasting impacts of reductions in early childhood investments, school quality, and educational attainment among today’s youth are likely to extend beyond declines in future productivity and earnings. Crime rates are likely to increase, health and mortality are likely to deteriorate, and political and social institutions may suffer.

Economists have long recognised and measured the lifetime benefits of education from improved learning opportunities (eg Card 1999, Heckman et al 2008). More recently, however, economists have begun to study the effects of education on other personal and social outcomes. A growing body of evidence I surveyed (Lochner 2011) and discuss here suggests that education can reduce crime, improve health, lower mortality, and increase political participation. The implied social benefits from these impacts can be sizeable.

Crime

Around the world, incarceration and conviction rates are high among the least educated. A number of recent studies find that this correlation reflects a causal relationship. For example, Lochner and Moretti (2004) estimate that increasing high school graduation rates by one percentage point in 1990 would have resulted in nearly 100,000 fewer crimes in the US, providing an annual social benefit valued at more than $2 billion (or $3,000 per additional male graduate). Notably, our estimates suggest that increases in education would reduce both violent and property crimes. In the UK, Machin et al (2011) estimate the social savings from crime reduction associated with increasing the population of individuals with an education qualification. Accounting only for benefits from property crime reduction, their estimates suggest a savings of over £10,000 per additional student qualification.

Open school enrolment lotteries and desegregation efforts appear to reduce crime rates by improving school quality. Deming (2009) estimates that reductions in arrests associated with offering better quality school options to a high-risk youth produces a roughly $16,000 social savings to victims over the next seven years. Because better schools are also likely to have reduced crimes that never led to an arrest, total victimisation savings may be 3-5 times higher. Total social savings would be still greater after factoring in savings on prisons and other crime prevention.

The long-run impacts of early childhood and school-age interventions on juvenile delinquency and adult crime can be substantial for disadvantaged youth. For example, estimates suggest that Perry Preschool produced a social benefit from crime reduction of roughly $150,000 per child (through age 40). Yet other model early childhood programs like Abecedarian produced no significant impacts on crime. Unfortunately, we do not yet understand these differences.

Health

Recent evidence suggests that educational attainment also improves health. Mazumder (2008) and Oreoupolos (2006) estimate that an additional year of high school improves self-reported health outcomes by 15-30% in the US, while European-based studies (eg Clark and Royer 2010, Silles 2009, Kempter et al 2010) typically estimate more modest impacts. There is little consensus in the literature regarding the impacts of education on mortality. Estimates range from negligible to implausibly large (Lleras-Muney 2005 and 2006, Mazumder 2008, Albouy and Lequien 2009, Clark and Royer 2010). A number of studies, especially those analysing more recent years, estimate that an additional year of schooling reduces current smoking rates by at least 10% (see, eg, Kenkel et al 2006, de Walque 2007, Grimard and Parent 2007, Clark and Royer 2010). In contrast, some of these same studies find that education has little impact on obesity. Finally, there is limited evidence that parental education levels affect child health; however, estimates vary widely (see, eg, Currie and Moretti 2003, McCrary and Royer 2009).

We can value the estimated reductions in mortality associated with schooling using measures of the value of a statistical life. Based on typical life-value estimates of $3-5 million, if education reduces ten-year mortality rates by 0.01 (a figure within the range of recent mortality estimates and roughly consistent with the much larger set of estimates on self-reported health), and if half of that reduction is ‘paid for’ in the form of costly health investments and behaviour changes, then a ballpark figure for the mortality benefits of an extra year of school is probably on the order of $1,500-2,500 per year. The value of more general health improvements is also likely to be sizeable.

Civic participation

More educated societies tend to be more democratic, but does education actually improve citizenship and political engagement? Three recent individual-based analyses suggest that it does – in the US at least. Dee (2004) and Milligan et al (2004) estimate that an additional year of schooling increases voter registration and voting in the US, with impacts typically ranging from 30% to 40%. By contrast, Milligan et al (2004) and Siedler (2007, 2010) estimate negligible impacts on voting in the UK and Germany. More generally, education appears to increase political interest and other forms of political participation, as well as the extent to which individuals are informed about politics. As with voting, impacts on these behaviours appear to be greater in the US than in Europe.

General lessons and caveats

Given the empirical strategies used to estimate the impacts of schooling on crime, health, and citizenship, we know much about the impact of additional years of high school but much less about the effects of higher education. There is good reason to believe that increases in college-going are not likely to yield dramatic benefits from crime reduction (at least in the near future), since studies have shown that education-based interventions and policies appear to reduce crime and delinquency most among the least able, most disadvantaged. A few studies have estimated significant reductions in smoking and improvements in political participation in response to additional years of college, but studies that measure the impacts of higher education on health or citizenship are the exception. There is growing evidence that preschool and school interventions at early ages can reduce delinquency and crime years later; although not all programs do.

Much of the evidence is US-based. While a number of very recent studies have begun to analyse the wider benefits of education in Europe, very few studies exploit data from developing countries where education levels are much lower. One might expect substantial differences in the impact of education on crime, health, and political engagement across countries with very different criminal justice, healthcare, and political systems. Indeed, comparisons across estimates from the US and Europe seem to suggest that education may improve health and mortality less in Europe, where healthcare tends to be universal and economic inequality is generally lower. Education also appears to impact voting and political participation less in Europe, where voter registration is often required and governments are more active in registering voters. While it is tempting to speculate about factors that might explain observed differences in estimates across countries, we are far from understanding them.

What role should government play? Crime reduction is an obvious externality that may justify expenditures on policies that improve the skills of the most disadvantaged (eg targeted preschool programs, improvements in school quality in low-income areas, or policies that encourage high school completion). Current evidence suggests that well-targeted education-based programs can be more cost-effective than traditional law enforcement policies once all costs and benefits are accounted for. Education policies targeted to the most disadvantaged have the added benefit of reducing economic inequality. There is little evidence of important education externalities in the health domain; most gains are private or, at least, contained within the family. As such, arguments for education interventions based on health gains are likely to be based on equity and social justice or on the argument that individuals are unaware of important health benefits when they make their schooling decisions. Even if youth are unaware of the health benefits associated with schooling, the social value of education-based initiatives is likely to be small if those benefits are largely achieved through greater health care expenditures or costly changes in behaviour. Unfortunately, we still know very little about how education improves health. Finally, it is clear that increases in political participation will affect the democratic process; however, it is difficult to know exactly how and even more difficult to put a value on this.

References :

Albouy, Valerie and Laurent Lequien (2009) “Does Compulsory Education Lower Mortality?” Journal of Health Economics 28(1):155-168.
Card, David (1999) “The Causal Effect of Education on Earnings”, in Ashenfelter, O and D Card (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, Part A, 1801-1863.
Clark, Damon and Heather Royer (2010) “The Effect of Education on Adult Health and Mortality: Evidence from Britain”, Working Paper.
Currie, Janet and Enrico Moretti (2003) “Mother’s Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from College Openings,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4):1495-1532.
de Walque, Damien (2007) “Does Education Affect Smoking Behaviors?: Evidence Using the Vietnam Draft as an Instrument for College Education,” Journal of Health Economics, 26:877-95.
Dee, Thomas S (2004) “Are there Civic Returns to Education?” Journal of Public Economics, 88(9-10):1697-1720.
Deming, David (2009) “Better Schools, Less Crime?” Working Paper.
Grimard, Franque and Daniel Parent (2007) “Education and Smoking: Were Vietnam War Draft Avoiders also more Likely to Avoid Smoking?” Journal of Health Economics, 26:896-926..
Heckman, James J, Lance Lochner, and Petra Todd (2008) “Earnings Functions and Rates of Return,” Journal of Human Capital, 2(1):1-31.
Kemptner, Daniel, Hendrik Jurges, and Steffen Reinhold (2010) “Changes in Compulsory Schooling and the Causal Effect of Education on Health: Evidence from Germany,” Working paper 10200, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim.
Kenkel, Donald, Dean Lillard, and Alan Mathios (2006). “The Roles of High School Completion and GED Receipt in Smoking and Obesity,” Journal of Labor Economics, 24(3):635-660.
Lleras-Muney, Adriana (2006) “Erratum: The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States,” Review of Economic Studies, 73(3):847.
Lleras-Muney, Adriana (2005) “The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States,” Review of Economic Studies, 72(1):189-221.
Lochner, Lance (2011) “Non-Production Benefits of Education: Crime, Health, and Good Citizenship,” in Hanushek, E, S Machin, and L Woessmann (eds), Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 4, Ch. 2, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
Lochner, Lance and Enrico Moretti (2004) “The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports,” American Economic Review, 94(1): 155-189.
Machin, Stephen, Olivier Marie, and Suncica Vujic (2011) “The Crime Reducing Effect of Education,” Economic Journal, 121(522), 463-484.
Mazumder, Bhashkar (2008) “Does Education Improve Health? A Reexamination of the Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws”, Economic Perspectives, 2-16.
McCrary, Justin and Heather Royer (2009) “The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth,” NBER Working Paper No. 12329,.
Milligan, Kevin, Enrico Moretti, and Philip Oreopoulos (2004). “Does Education Improve Citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom,” Journal of Public Economics, 88(9-10):1667-1695.
Oreopoulos, Philip (2006) “Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter,” American Economic Review, 96(1):152-175.
Siedler, Thomas (2007) “Schooling and Citizenship: Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms,” Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
Siedler, Thomas (2010) “Schooling and Citizenship in a Young Democracy: Evidence from Postwar Germany,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 112(2):315-338.
Silles, Mary A (2009) “The Causal Effect of Education on Health: Evidence from the United Kingdom,” Economics of Education Review, 28:122-128.

How should Government go about reducing unemployment?

2011-11-07T00:30:00.000Z

The biggest challenge facing the current government is reducing unemployment. The budget this week will inevitably begin to address it.

This problem is not unique to Zambia, though it is quite severe in our case. Only 2% of the the Zambian workforce force is in the formal sector (that is to say gainfully employed and paying tax).

As part of the readers weekly column, we are asking:

How should government go about tackling unemployment?

What policies should they implement to decisively and expediently deal with this issue?

Those on Facebook can leave there comments here.

Fighting Corruption

2011-11-06T16:42:00.001Z

A recent article by South African based Institute of Security Studies touches on the issues we have touched here, particularly the relevant of SMS and hotlines in offering efficient and accessible way for members of the public to report abuse.

Hotlines, salaries and corruption, Darly Balia, Institute of Security Studies, Commentary:

There was a time a few decades ago when some writers argued a case that corruption might actually bring benefits to society and for that reason tolerated, but these voices have since been silenced. What is less certain is which of the 'best practices' are commendable for its control and prevention in the developing world.

Take the use of telephone hotlines to report corrupt practices. The present national anti-corruption hotline in South Africa is intended primarily for reporting misdemeanours in government service. Such a hotline is not always desirable as it must first be tested, since implementing it in a centralised way might amount to a logistical nightmare. We know that the private sector seems often content to encourage a use of multiple hotlines to report mostly incidents of fraud, and which often include promises of a reward for such reporting.

In the South African insurance industry, for example, a toll-free hotline was introduced to report fraud and within the first month of its operation the cost of setting it up had been recovered. Numerous reports were received as large-scale fraud was uncovered by company investigators working in partnership with law enforcement agencies.

The issue of reward for information provided is often raised in the context of whistle-blowing, as without incentives, there seems to be little willingness or motivation for people to come forward and blow the whistle. The terms of the Protected Disclosures Act No. 26 of 2000 assumes one's identity will be revealed in making a disclosure. The risk of occupational detriment, though mitigated by the offer of protection against such an occurrence, weighs heavily upon those wishing to blow the whistle.

The hotline, on the other hand, offers the possibility of reporting corruption anonymously, and may therefore end up being a more convenient and less threatening route for members of the public to follow. Yet hotlines should not be viewed as a substitute for effective whistle-blowing policies, which of themselves should be intrinsic to any organisation's internal integrity, anyway. The question remains therefore whether the creation of a hotline, while facilitating the reporting of corruption, does not serve to undermine the promotion of a whistle-blowing culture. The temptation to remain anonymous on a telephone while reporting corruption would be greater than taking the high road of making a protected disclosure without monetary gain.

Like with so much else about fighting corruption, the lack of quantifiable data to prove the effectiveness of hotlines in curbing corruption is an obstacle when one has to do a cost-benefit analysis. In the case of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in Hong Kong many years ago, the hotline was extensively used by the public, particularly to report cases of police corruption. In the United States, the General Accounting Office established a hotline in the fight against fraud, abuse and waste of federal funds in 1979. Over the next nine years, about 90 000 calls were received, 13 992 of which required follow up, with allegations substantiated in only 1 589 cases. These cases most commonly involved private use of state property, abuse of office hours, general mismanagement and fraud by recipients of state benefits. The costs of investigation would obviously have been high, and it's often the case that 'there are no solid figures on actual savings resulting from the hotline operation', and furthermore, 'a strict cost-benefit analysis might very well show no net savings'. Like this American experience of fraudulent claims against state benefits, the (South African) Department of Social Development estimated an annual loss in this regard to run into millions of rands and consequently took the bold step of establishing its own anti-fraud hotline in 2004. This was done despite the then pending launch of the national hotline and at a cost of more millions of rands. The departmental expense was clearly an extravagant one in comparison with the budget for the national effort, but more importantly, it raises again the serious matter of a lack of consultation among the upper echelons of government when plans to fight corruption are being implemented. That brings us back to the old adage of the one hand not knowing what the other is doing, or more pointedly, the lack of strategic co-ordination when it is most needed.

The introduction of the Senior Management Service (SMS) for managers in public service in 2001 was premised on the capacity of the state to attract and retain many of the best and highly skilled managers. Very competitive salaries and conditions of service were offered to, among other factors, help prevent or reduce the temptation to engage in corrupt behaviour. Job evaluation was made mandatory for all posts at senior level to ensure that 'salaries are determined by the responsibilities, the thinking demands, the knowledge and skills required' for a particular job. This dovetailed with the performance management approach in which all managers are required to sign agreements that allow for support to be given to good performers but, also, appropriate action to be taken against managers who default on their performance. The skills and abilities of the managers were also made subject to being nurtured and developed through an array of training programmes. Evidence is therefore not lacking about concrete measures having been taken directly or indirectly by government to root out corruption from among its management echelons. By comparison, the costs of undertaking management reforms such as improved remuneration might be costly to the state, but in view of the multiple benefits they generate, such reforms are often considered an investment in the future. One of the key 'lessons' to be learnt from Singapore's successful efforts to reduce incentives for corruption among civil servants (and political leaders) was to ensure that their salaries and fringe benefits were competitive with the private sector. The above SMS might therefore be viewed in a similar vein, as a step to reducing the incentives for public service managers to engage in corrupt actions. Yet many will still clamour for those enjoying their ride on a 'gravy train' of rewards and benefits, however earned, to be paid less and live more simply so that the public purse can be used for other deserving causes.

To fight corruption and produce a positive benefit for society clearly requires an investment of monetary resources which in any developing country is a rather scarce commodity. It then becomes a matter of contentious debate to establish which approaches are most suited to spending less and achieving a greater impact. Yet without solid research and proper policy analysis it's anyone's guess as to what works and what doesn't and why corruption persists as a blight to society.

Readers Weekly : Tackling Traffic Police Corruption

2011-11-05T13:00:00.007Z

The Zambia Police Service in collaboration with the Road Transport and Safety Agency are planning to set up a new system for payment of fines for traffic offences in effort to curb corruption. According to Inspector-General of Police Martin Malama the aim is to “discourage the practice of paying money to police officers when a traffic offence has been committed”. How this will work in practice is not clear, but one idea he is considering is for erring motorists to be issued with tickets that can be paid at a bank.

Traffic police are widely regarded as the most corrupt element in the police force and tackling the scourge there would send a strong message that the police is being reformed. To delve deeper into this issue, we asked our readers via Facebook, website and email, whether the latest efforts would succeed and if there other ways that need to be explored. The following is a selected sample of “properly identified" responses:

Kondwani Gondwe :

Changing the method of payment is not the solution to stop traffic corruption. It appears like the Inspector General does not know the problem at hand. He should first carry out a survey and ask motorists (especially bus drivers) what the problem really is. Then the police can design a mechanism to curb the problem. The traffic police are taking advantage of the high charges which most motorist would rather not pay and the ignorance of the traffic law. Traffic police make up silly cases to pin offenders for their gain. In my opinion, traffic police are just out to make money and have very little to do with police work. We know that high ranking officer in the police force even set target per week to the patrol officers. Where is the corruption? Right inside the police force not on the road. Will changing the method of payment change anything? it is a good step but maybe in conjunction with other measures.

Chaila Nathir Kafusha :

I think stopping corruption or reducing it at road traffic will be the hardest of all. I say this because we are technologicaly challenged and we cant use it (e.g cameras) . In this case, here are some of my ideas :
1.) I think what the Govt should work hand in hand with the community, the public and also motorist, introduce toll free numbers by RATSA (or police) for the community to report any corrupt cases,or suspicious deals going on between the motorists and the traffic police.
2.) The Govt should also provide a Union that will listen to motorists views..
3.) The Govt must also put in place measures that will enable the public becoming interested like rewards, free medical care, promotions to all those reporting the cases!
4.) Also the Govt should be rotating and transfer all Traffic Pølice every six months to other areas.
5.) One more thing, the Govt must also reduce the road traffic fines for the motorist to afford..

Isaac Mulongo :

Simply stop collecting cash on the street an offence committee should be subjected to court who will write the person asking to pay within two weeks failure to that the the fee will increase or face imprisonment as penalty. Actually these must be divided into two functions performed by two different institutions :
1) The council here I mean the local council where the car is registered
2) the police which shall be in charge of controlling the high ways
There must be a central place say in Nyimba, Eastern Province where all drivers who committ offence the cases are sent. There is need to introduce a point system which will determine the safety of our roads. If you get 5 points for example due to over speeding your license is revoked for 1 year.

Jay Mat ‎

Then, you [are] suggesting members of the public are not corrupt? Police officers in fact rarely solicit. People do offer irresistable offers, given the vulnerability of cops. Besides, if a person breaks the traffic rule, why [would they not commit] corruption? Its sad. The best is for all of us to be morally upright. Solution: let the police stop impounding cars for erring motorists but instead give time frame to such motorist to discharge their indebtedness. Motorists are tempted to offer a bribe in order to buy freedom. But if freedom is guaranteed, it means they will have no reason of offering or accept to give a bribe.

Steven Putter

I think a simple sms service should be used, where the network sends a receipt to the motorist's phone or any number the unfortunate person so chooses, and guarantees a lower rate than corruption, so if the cop ask K5000, then you sms for free and state the cops number, then you're free to go...

R. Henson :

It starts with drivers knowing their rights. Road traffic fines are actually in lieu of a court case. They are “Admission of Guilt” fines. In other words if you pay you have admitted that you are wrong. To prevent being wrongly fined, read and know the traffic law and then don’t pay unless you know that you are wrong. If there is a disagreement between the driver and police as to the legality of the charge the case can go to court. Traffic police actually don’t want to go to court especially if the case is dubious. They just want you to pay. If the case is dubious and you refuse to pay and say ‘take me to court’ it usually ends there. Also the police must give you time to pay which gives you time to go and look up the law. They will threaten to impound the vehicle or seize driving licences or insurance documents to ensure your return but they have no right to do so.

Once I insisted on being shown the relevant law and when it proved me right, the police insisted there was a statutory instrument superseding it, but could not produce it, so I refused to pay. A vehicle can only be impounded if it is dangerous to drive (no brakes for instance) Otherwise once you have provided your name, ID number address and vehicle details you can go away with the vehicle and come back later to pay or refuse to pay. Many cases which are just bribe seeking harassment can be ended by taking out a paper and pen and asking politely for the officers’ name and number. If there is no genuine case it will then be hurriedly dropped without the name and number being given. In a small town, if you never pay bribes, the traffic officers fairly soon leave you alone.

End of Parastatal Madness?

2011-11-05T12:32:00.000Z

"Business as usual is over, we all have to pull our socks and roll our sleeves to sustain our institutions. As ZWAMA, you will be entitled to settle all your costs and build a fund that will enable you buy the equipment you require to operate to full capacity...To survive, there is need to change…from 2012 we expect you to be independent and if you want salary increment, work for it. Every deductions taking place whether National Pensions Scheme Authority (NAPSA) or Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) should be remitted.."

Commerce Minister Bob Sichinga is drawing a line on parastatals and regulators that have depended on Government grants. From 2012 they are expected to sustain themselves to allow more more to be channelled to poverty reduction. The announcement was prompted by Zambia Weights and Measures Agency (ZWAMA) predicament of being in need of about US$ 1.2 million to meet its capital requirement in the medium term and has a statutory debt of US$1m.

If this was done it would save Government huge sums of money. We have chronicled the waste of parastatals through our series - "parastatal madness". See the related posts below.

Related Posts :

Parastatal Madness, 13th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 12th Edition
Parastatal Madness, 11th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 10th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 9th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 8th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 7th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 6th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 5th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 4th Edition

Parastatal Madness, 3rd Edition

Parastatal Madness, 2nd Edition

Parastatal Madness

Women, Politics and Development (Guest Blog)

2011-11-04T23:32:00.000Z

Modern democracy “has inexorably come to mean representative democracy” (Bratton and Van de Walle, 1997, 11). If so, can a system where more than half of the population remains severely under-represented count as a true democracy?

Currently, of the 150 members of parliament (MPs) in Zambia, 16 are women, or 10.7%. In the cabinet there are two female ministers out of 28, and only four female deputy ministers out of 18. And yet women constitute more than half of the total population. We say all the right things; have signed all manner of protocols declaring our commitment to the increased participation of women in the political arena and yet the evidence shows that we continue to lag behind. And in this last election, we lost previously made gains.

When we address the issue of representation, many argue that this is not necessarily about discrimination but rather that many women in general are apathetic about politics and choose not to participate. The inherent weakness of this argument is it fails to underscore the barriers that exist in women’s representation in the legislative and executive branches of government, and does not adequately explain women’s reticence to stand for office.

These barriers include, but are not limited to the following: male-dominant culture, low levels of women’s activism within political parties, discriminatory adoption practices often dictated by the party head, lack of financial resources, and cultural constraints that confine women into gender specific roles.

Looking at Zambia’s political parties across the board, few women occupy high level, decision-making positions and this has a direct impact on the number of well qualified women who stand for election. We have the obligatory chairperson of women’s affairs which is just a shorter and politically correct title for “chief dancer and coordinator of dancing women cadres,” and not much else.

The opposition women face when they choose to enter politics is stiff. It often starts within their own homes and social groups, and extends further into political parties and among the electorate. This is characterised by media blackouts as well as hostile campaigns which are particularly demeaning and often sexist. It is not uncommon for a woman to articulate throughout her campaign how her husband supports her endeavours because anything short of that has her labeled as “untaught” or “rebellious.” Pity the single woman or divorcée without a man to give his blessing.

The lack of financial resources is also a significant barrier. Election campaigns are very costly. Party fundraising remains veiled in secrecy. And we often do not know who is making contributions or how the monies are distributed internally to candidates seeking election. But what we do know in speaking with past and present women MPs is that many women finance themselves because they are often not well established within the party elite to get the needed backing.

It is therefore unsurprising that many women have largely withdrawn from politics “taking their grievances to the NGO sector” where their voices can be heard and are valued (Geisler 1995, 545). With that said, there has been a resurgence of organisations lobbying for women’s political leadership, legislative and constitutional changes that are gender-sensitive and civic education focused on mentoring and teaching people about their rights as citizens.

In the past, all too often women's mobilization was co-opted by the male elite who used women's political energy for their own ends and forced a narrow agenda such as women’s morality (Geisler 1995, 562) and detracted from a much broader focus on issues that adversely affect women. This has been shifting, as more women realise that having a seat at the table is the best means of having a say in development of economic and social policies.

Women’s NGOs have been extremely effective is bringing public awareness to socio-economic issues affecting women and children such as child marriage, domestic violence, sexual harassment, health, property ownership and access to credit. This has been done through campaigns and seminars, and we now see this energy being channeled to build networks for women who go into politics.

Entry into political office, though significant it is just one step. Gender discrimination and sometimes sexual harassment continue to plague women in government. The prevalent view is that politics is a male domain, and as a result women feel the pressure to work twice as hard as their male counterparts to prove they have earned the right to be in their positions.

One missing element in Zambia’s parliament also inhibiting progress is the lack of cross-party collaboration. It is difficult to work with colleagues from other parties when the risk of party discipline looms large, and in an environment where women’s numbers are small to begin with; this limits the ability for women MPs to work under a united front on women’s issues and to be wholly effective.

Men and women bring diverse experiences and ideas to their positions as decision and policy makers. When women are not adequately represented in decision-making roles, especially at the national level, their rights and freedoms are often violated. We need to further develop and implement capacity building programmes to support women aspirants and potential candidates; NGOs have taken the lead and it is time for political parties to live up their promises and expectations. A true partnership between men and women must be established in our quest for sustainable development and more just world.

References :

Bratton, M., Van de Walle, N. “Democratic experiments in Africa: regime transitions in comparative perspective.” Cambridge University Press (1997): 11

Geisler, Gisela. "Troubled Sisterhood: Women and Politics in Southern Africa." African Affairs 94 (1995): 545-578.

Authorship

Bwalya Chileya is a Zambian living in the USA. She writes regularly on Zambia, politics, gender and sustainable development. You can read more at well known blog - Seize the Moment.

Zambian Economist encourages special contributions from leading thinkers on matters relevant to Zambia's national development. The purpose of these notes is to stimulate discussion and ensure logic and impartial critique plays a leading role in shaping public debate. Special contributions for publications should be submitted via email - cho@zambian-economist.com

Does Redistributing Income Reduce Poverty?

2011-11-02T23:20:00.003Z

Jagdish Bhagwati on the case for "growth-first". He believes the merit for redistribution lies less in its ability to reduce poverty, rather in its power to buy stability for the rich. Unfortunately the analysis is quite light. For example, it does not consider different forms of re-distribution or the wider empirical evidence on how growth is sustained in the absence of redistribution :

Does Redistributing Income Reduce Poverty? Jagdish Bhagwati, Project Syndicate, Commentary :

Many on the left are suspicious of the idea that economic growth helps to reduce poverty in developing countries. They argue that growth-oriented policies seek to increase gross national product, not to ameliorate poverty, and that redistribution is the key to poverty reduction. These assertions, however, are not borne out by the evidence.

Since the 1950’s, developmental economists have understood that growth in GNP is not synonymous with increased welfare. But, even prior to independence, India’s leaders saw growth as essential for reducing poverty and increasing social welfare. In economic terms, growth was an instrument, not a target – the means by which the true targets, like poverty reduction and the social advancement of the masses, would be achieved.
A quarter-century ago, I pointed out the two distinct ways in which economic growth would have this effect. First, growth would pull the poor into gainful employment, thereby helping to lift them out of poverty. Higher incomes would enable them to increase their personal spending on education and health (as seems to have been happening in India during its recent period of accelerated growth).

Second, growth increases state revenues, which means that the government can potentially spend more on health and education for the poor. Of course, a country does not necessarily spend more on such items simply because it has increased revenue, and, even if it does, the programs it chooses to fund may not be effective.

In almost willful ignorance of the fact that the growth-centered model has proved itself time and again, skeptics advocate an alternative “redistributive” developmental model, which they believe will have a greater impact on reducing poverty. Critics of the growth model argue that it is imperative to redistribute income and wealth as soon as possible. They claim that the Indian state of Kerala and the country of Bangladesh are examples where redistribution, rather than growth, has led to better outcomes for the poor than in the rest of India.

Yet, as Columbia University economist Arvind Panagariya’s recent work shows, Kerala’s social statistics were better than those in the rest of the country even before it instituted its current redistributive model. Moreover, Kerala has profited immensely from remittances sent home by its émigré workers in the Middle East, a factor unrelated to its redistributive policy. As for Bangladesh, the United Nations’ Human Development Index, admittedly a problematic source, ranks it below India.

In impoverished countries where the poor exceed the rich by a huge margin, redistribution would increase the consumption of the poor only minimally – by, say, a chapati a day – and the increase would not be sustainable in a context of low income and high population growth. In short, for most developing countries, growth is the principal strategy for inclusive development – that is, development that consciously includes the marginal and poorest members of a society.

But the political sustainability of the growth-first model requires both symbolic and material efforts. While growth does benefit the poor, the rich often benefit disproportionately. So, to keep the poor committed to the system as their economic aspirations are aroused, the wealthy would be well advised to indulge less in conspicuous consumption.

At the same time – and more importantly – the poor need greater access to education in order to increase their economic opportunities and social mobility. “Less excess and more access” must become the principle that guides development policy.

Raising the Retirement Age in Zambia

2011-11-01T19:56:00.004Z

This month's short essay examines the recent Government proposal to raise the statutory minimum pensionable age. The essay is embedded below (PDF downloadable) and the HTML version can be found via Facebook page for those using handheld devices. The current essay has benefit from the rich discussion from our Readers Weekly discussions. We hope to draw more of this "crowd" sourcing of idea for future essays. So keep your ideas coming! We continue to value your feedback on these essays and as well as potential topics and authors for future months.

Raising the Retirement Age in Zambia

What is the best way to reduce traffic police corruption?

2011-10-31T19:57:00.000Z

The Zambia Police Service in collaboration with the Road Transport and Safety Agency are planning to set up a new system for payment of fines for traffic offences in effort to curb corruption.

According to Inspector-General of Police Martin Malama the aim is to “discourage the practice of paying money to police officers when a traffic offence has been committed”. How this will work in practice is not clear, but one idea he is considering is for erring motorists to be issued with tickets that can be paid at a bank.

Traffic police are widely regarded as the most corrupt element in the police force and tackling the scourge there would send a strong message that the police is being reformed.

Do you think this idea by Inspector General Malama will help curb the scourge? If, what approaches do you think Government should consider in reducing traffic police related corruption?

A sample of responses from "properly identified persons" will be published under the Readers Weekly column.

Those on Facebook can leave their comments here.

Delivering A New Constitution (Guest Blog)

2011-10-30T00:30:00.001+01:00

Over the years, the people’s call for a Republican Constitution that is expected to stand the test of time has been loud and clear. Unfortunately, we have wasted a good portion of our country’s meager resources on financing the Chona Constitution Commission, the Mvunga Constitution Review Commission, the Mwanakatwe Constitution Review Commission, the Mung’omba Constitutional Review Commission, and the National Constitutional Conference without coming up with such a Constitution.

It is shameful that after 47 years of political independence, we have failed to give ourselves an acceptable Constitution—a Constitution for all Zambians, today and forever! The Patriotic Front (PF) should, therefore, be commended for promising to deliver a new Republican Constitution that will stand the test of time in 90 days.

However, the ad hoc Task Force to be constituted to work on the Constitution should be given one year to complete its work rather than 90 days if it is to do a thorough job in addressing the many contentious issues, errors and inconsistencies in previous constitutional review efforts.

The Task Force should preferably consist of at most 30 citizens who do not currently hold leadership positions in non-governmental organizations (NGOs), political parties which have MPs in Parliament, religious institutions, the labor movement, the legislature, the executive, the judiciary, the civil service, and the House of Chiefs.

The terms of reference for the Task Force should, among other things, be to identify and examine contentious issues, errors and inconsistencies in: (a) the 1996 Republican constitution; and (b) the draft constitutions of the Chona Constitution Commission, the Mvunga Constitution Review Commission, the Mwanakatwe Constitution Review Commission, the Mung’omba Constitutional Review Commission, and the National Constitutional Conference.

Moreover, the Task Force should be required to prepare a provisional Draft Constitution based on its findings. And citizens should, thereafter, be given at least 90 days in which they can present their comments on the content of the provisional Draft Constitution, followed by the preparation of a final Draft Constitution based on refinements made upon consideration of the people’s comments. A nationwide referendum can, thereafter, be organized to gauge whether or not the final Draft Constitution reflects the will and the desires and aspirations of the Zambian people.

The role of Parliament and the Republican president in this endeavor should be limited to the provision of financial and material resources to the constitution-making process, and to assent to the final output of the process after the referendum.

Of necessity, the output of the constitution-making process should be widely acceptable to the citizenry. In this regard, one may wish to share the following wise words of Father Joe Komakoma excerpted from an article entitled “Government Must Respect the People’s Wishes,” which appeared in The Post Newspaper of October 13, 1995: “As the supreme law of the land, the Constitution must be recognized and respected as embodying the sovereign will of the majority of our people.”

Preferably, the new Republican constitution should include the following:

(a) Provision for the appointment of ministers by the Republican President from among persons qualified to be elected as members of parliament, but who are not members of parliament;

(b) Provision for the election of the Republican President under a system where the winning candidate should receive not less than 50 percent plus one vote of the valid votes cast;

(c) Provision for the Republican Vice President to be elected as a running mate to any citizen seeking to be elected as Republican President;

(d) Provision for a consultative, transparent and accountable debt contraction law designed to give power to Parliament to oversee and approve all loans to be contracted by the government on behalf of Zambians; and

(e) Clear guarantees relating to the social, economic and other rights and freedoms of citizens.

Authorship

Henry Kyambalesa is Adjunct Professor in the School for Professional Studies at Regis University, Denver, USA, as well as an Independent Business and Management Researcher and Consultant. He is also President of the Agenda for Change party.

Prisoner of Regime Change - Part II (Guest Blog)

2011-10-29T19:32:00.000+01:00

In the previous article Regime Change: The Fires of the Maghreb I briefly discussed the objectives of the NATO led mission in Libya and the expectations of the Libyan people and the region. The events in Libya have since moved at a faster rate than anticipated and have culminated in the death of Gaddafi in circumstances being alleged by the International Criminal Court (ICC) as a summary execution after being caught alive by the National Transition Council (NTC) forces. From the a neutral point of view one can only speculate how Gaddafi would have dealt with his enemies if the roles were reversed given the fact that the Colonel was well known for absolute brutality against opponents. If it turns out that NATO war planes deliberately bombed the convoy that allowed the Libyan NTC troops to capture Gaddafi then NATO went beyond the resolution 1973. The UN resolution 1973 is a mandate that in principle allowed NATO to enforce a NO flying zone to stop the escalation of the conflict to separate the two sides and secure humanitarian protection. However, Russia, China, the African Union (AU) and many other countries have since argued that what essentially happened in Libya was a military operation by NATO aimed squarely at supporting the NTC forces while limiting the capability of Gaddafi royalists. In other words, NATO overstepped their boundaries defined by the Security Council framework which was strictly civilian protection and created deliberate pre-conditions for regime change. I am sure the interpretation of the UN resolution 1973 and the actions of NATO will be subject to a fierce debate over the coming months and years. The removal of Gaddafi also raises the issue of the validity of continued NATO operations in Libya under the current mandate 1973. However, if post-Gaddafi instability materialises that would mean that it would be necessary and imperative for NATO to return to the UN for a new mandate.

The removal of the Gaddafi regime from power is surely welcome as it brings to an end the tyrannical rule in Libya, however, the manner in which it was done confirms a number of things: first some dictators are more preferred than others, for instance, in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Algeria and Yemen there is no freedom of speech and opposition is brutally crushed and suppressed but I doubt if one will ever see a resolution calling for military intervention in these countries because what might replace the current regimes in those countries might be the stuff of nightmares for the western countries i.e. worse than the current friendly dictators in those countries. It also helps if leaders of these countries have European or American connections through marriage or descent as is the case with Syria, Jordan, Morocco and many others in the region. When asked about Nicaraguan dictator Somoza, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) former president of the USA allegedly said ‘we know that he is a brutal dictator and a pain in the backside of everyone but he is our pain in the backside’ (paraphrased). From this statement it is reasonable to conclude that certain dictators are accepted because they serve a purpose. The statement by FDR embodies a principle which has become a cornerstone of international relations and politics for most countries today. In addition, the direct intervention by NATO shows the weakness of the UN as a world body. If military intervention was of the utmost urgency why not a UN force or NATO force under UN command, to opponents a UN lead Libyan mission would have left no room to doubt the objectives of protecting civilians. Furthermore, if protecting civilians was the major objective why didn’t NATO and her allies ask for the UN mandate to protect civilians in Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, Zimbabwe, Sudan, and Egypt? The operations in Libya shows that sometimes even powerful nations such as the US, UK, France have scores to settle. It is common knowledge that Gaddafi was perceived a thorn in the backside of the west for decades due to his alleged support for terrorism in the west in the 1980s and 90s, WMD programme which he eventually abandoned, his anti-west rhetoric and growing influence in Sub-Sahara.

It is true that the death of Gaddafi has sent shockwaves in Libya and around the world sociological and psychological. For the last 42 years, Libyans have been under the rule of a single minded despot who modelled the country in his own visions of self grandeur and ruled the country with an iron fist. However, unlike other countries Libya can claim under Gaddafi to be the only country in Africa where citizens had free education to university level, social security and free health care. Now that Gaddafi is dead, Libyans will turn their attention turns to promises and expectations of the revolution. People want the expectation to be met for the revolution to have a meaning to them otherwise the hard fought war to remove Gaddafi would have been for nothing. Therefore, managing expectations and promises of the new Libya especially those of young men and women with high hopes presents the biggest challenge for the post-Qaddaffi Libyan leaders. If not managed well, the young will revolt and turn their frustration toward the new leaders. Gaddafi had a lukewarm relationship with fellow Arab dictators and hence he turned his attention to Sub-Sahara where he enjoyed popularity and allowed black African to work in Libya. However, now that Gaddafi is dead non-Arab immigrants who enjoyed relative inclusion are now seen as no more than mercenaries to some extent that some have been killed and other beaten. The plight of black Africans post Gaddafi has been raised by the Head of UN humanitarian affairs Baroness Amos.

The death of Gaddafi has wider business implication as time has come for sharing the spoils of war or rather time to be rewarded for the effort of removing Gaddafi. In Britain, USA and France the media is already calling for NTC to give preferential treatment to businesses from NATO countries when it comes to Oil/Gas deals and national reconstruction contracts. Others may use this to argue that this goes to show the real purpose for NATO intervention in Libya. Prior to the capture and death of Gaddafi the official stance on Libya by UK and France was that it was necessary to prevent an escalation of violence and humanitarian catastrophe on the door steps of Europe as the consequences of complacency far outweighs the cost of intervention. However, what was not overtly discussed was the business component post Gaddafi Libya. I explicitly stated in the previous article that no government supports another for free and soon the NTC will find out that time has now come to pay the liberators. Libya is a country segmented by tribes and Gaddafi found a way to moderate tribal rivalries through a mixture of careful coercion, financial inducements and social incentives. Absence of attention to the tribal dynamics will have an impact on the social structure and relationship within Libya. The alleged victims of the Gaddafi regime in their thousands and some part of the NTC will call for justice and retribution once the guns and gears of war are silenced. The debate is whether the NTC will opt for reconciliation and national unity given that the despot is dead. How the NTC deals with the remnant of the previous regime and manage Libyan expectations will not just impact relationships within Libyan but between Libya and other countries. The NTC will perhaps opt to rekindle the relationship with the Arab league, NATO, strengthen EU ties and have a lukewarm participation in the African Union. Whatever actions the NTC takes will set the stage for the type of government and direction in which Libya should go.

A PDF version of the article can be found here.

Authorship

Dr Mpundu Mukanga is the Principal Director of Visum Global UK and Kurgus Investment Zambia. He is the Zambian Economist resident expert on African geo-politics. Website: www.visumglobal.co.uk Email: Mukanga@visumglobal.co.uk

Losing Out, 2nd Edition

2011-10-29T19:08:00.000+01:00

We have previously touched on the timber exploitation in the country following an excellent article by Doreen Nawa. The Timber Producers Association of Zambia (TPAZ) is now calling for Government to revoke all timber licences because most investors are plundering the country. In the words of TPAZ's Charles Masange, “the timber industry has been performing very badly because it is overcrowded by foreigners...I call them (foreign investors) harvesters instead of investors because they are abusing our timber which is natural resources from which we are suppose to benefit locally”. Apparently, the "harvesters" are buying timber from local producers for $200 and reselling it $12,000 per tonne.

The suggested policy is for "Government to sort out the issuance of licences to bring sanity in the industry", but given the profit margins suggested by TPAZ that is unlikely to lead to a domestic led industry. In many ways the problems facing the timber industry are not too different from those facing the precious stones industry. In both cases "licences" are not the problem. The larger problem is that these should be an industries that are properly regulated and possibly with a stronger element of state production.

This logical conclusion becomes obvious once we recognise that providing timber licences to Zambians only will not lead to long term empowerment because the incentives for ordinary Zambians to use the licences is fairly weak. Simply put, its cheaper and more immediately rewarding for many Zambians to allow foreign production (by charging the "fee") rather than directly use the timber licence themselves. To successfully become a timber entrepreneur not only do you need credit, but also access to established supply chains. The foreign investor has all these things in abundance and crucially they are able to harness the economies of scale that are associated with pooling timber licences together. Bizarrely the more attractive timber becomes the more foreign investors push out the locals! Unfortunately for Government the foreign operators keep their cash abroad where they live! Perhaps to remedy that the invoicing and payments reforms being considered in the context of mining should be considered for timber production - as first step.

Winter of Discontent (Guest Blog)

2011-10-28T00:30:00.000+01:00

Winter is beginning in North America, and the real test of the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) protests and sympathetic demonstrations is about to begin. Thus far all of the major mistakes have been made by opponents of the protests (e.g.: certain police, media, and politicians), and the movement has gained attention each time. For once the American Left has seized on some actually effective marketing and sloganeering, and even more remarkably have not so far followed their usual pattern of transforming victory into defeat by any means necessary. The problem for the protesters themselves is that they have to now do what they have said they will do if things don't change, they must occupy and be seen to occupy, as continuously as possible for the next full year. That is because unless the protests can continue to move the poll numbers in the electorate and generate a political movement of the terms of debate over the next election cycle culminating in November of 2012, both Republicans and Democrats will continue to provide the economic elite with the privilege of impunity from the consequences of their self-enrichment.

Privilege literally just means "private law," and with the number of Wall Street bankers and brokers serving time amongst the national prison population of millions, for theft, or fraud, or malfeasance, or indeed any charge related to the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth and savings, currently standing at precisely zero, I think that it is safe to say that these are privileged persons indeed! They have not even been "named and shamed" by the free press, which may be fortunate given the vast quantities of firearms floating around this country and all of these millions of people who have been evicted from their homes with no access to mental health facilities. Hollywood has already started cashing in with "comedic" fantasies that revolve around protagonist employees who are seeking revenge against their bosses. But one of the traditional privileges of the rich is not having to associate with poor people, and police at beckon call to enforce this. Another is to smugly assume that one's wealth is entirely of one's own making without a requisite social contract. That last one is at the heart of what OWS is all about, and the rich would be wise to disabuse themselves of this delusional paradigm post haste. Throw the Ayn Rand books away and read some actual economics.

One of the richest men in America is New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and when OWS began over a month ago he clearly figured that if he just treated it like any other protest, it would go away like every other protest before always has. When it didn't go away his administration had no additional options prepared, just lots and lots of cops in riot gear standing around earning overtime, and his peers amongst the rich people complaining about the noise from the crowds. Over decades cities like New York have enacted long lists of laws designed to make persons considered undesirable by rich property owners leave otherwise public spaces. Tops of the list are homeless people and protestors, so the rich are understandably agitated over what appears to be a large concentration of homeless protesters announcing their intention to occupy public spaces adjacent to very high rent property. The irony that proximity to public spaces in one of the world's mega-cities is one of the key factors which make these properties valuable in the first place seems to have escaped them for the moment. It was only a matter of time before pressure from the rich caused a man like Bloomberg to tell his Police Commissioner to make OWS go away. It was only standard operating procedure that prompted the Commissioner to tell his Precinct Captains to make life hard on the protesters.

Meanwhile the media that had come around sniffing for a story when it all began, scoffed at the relatively small numbers of protestors with their signs claiming to represent 99% of society, and after the first week the story was relegated to junior reporters with orders to find the "lighter side" of the news. The late night comedians vied with one another to exploit every tired stereotype about the sad truth that over the last few decades protests in America have been largely ineffective, self-indulgent parades with no practical impact on governance or policy-making. True, many hippies still haven't learned that drum circles make protests smaller, not larger, because unless you have a drum it gets oppressive fast and the only solution is to be somewhere else. Clearly nobody had planned for long term sanitation issues, nor apparently realised that they would by necessity require the cooperation of local small businesses to avoid drowning in their own feces, and thousands of flushes a day costs real money. The whole thing could have been one long running joke to most of the country, that is if they even noticed OWS at all, but privilege had been affronted, and that was apparently not a laughing matter.

Americans are probably the most propagandized people on the planet because they do it to themselves. In the Cold War, where the USSR placed their faith in Pravda, a single government sanctioned version of the truth from which no other media could deviate, the USA went in the opposite direction, flooding their population with media choices, encouraging competition for every conceivable niche market and audience. The result today is that any American of average means who wants to watch or read about nothing but sports, or cooking, or finance, or animals, or cartoons, or whatever they like can easily do so. Even for news junkies it is all too easy to self-select for media which tells them exactly what they want to hear, spinning every event or fact in the national dialogue into one continuous partisan monologue. Americans have been choosing to pay more attention to debt, and conservative politicians should look in the mirror for the blame. All the best economists said that the paradox of thrift would cause consumers to spend less just when the recovering economy needed them to spend more even if they must borrow to do so. Efforts to shift discourse away from overly thrifty policies towards a debate on productive investment versus waste were swept aside by the right wing Tea Party, which insists that national debt is equivalent to personal debt, and in rather puritanical fashion somehow morally indefensible. They have insisted on slashing public payrolls, and deepened the crisis in the process. Sometimes it can be hard to see the trees with that forest in the way.

Even as the US government flounders in a vacuum of tax revenues, now at their lowest share of GDP in decades, and unemployment rates have risen and remained at highs not seen since before World War II, the richest of the rich continue to see their share of national income grow and to accumulate more and more of the available wealth for themselves. The surviving middle class has been reducing debt at a record pace, primarily by renegotiating home mortgages and paying down high interest credit card balances. The sad realization that the value of their modest homes will not escalate exponentially and magically pay for them to live a lavish retirement has set in, and serious attention is now being paid to job security, pension prospects, and potential for advancement. The promise that higher education would lead to success has proven false for too many, and with tuition rates increasing at 4 times the rate of inflation since 1982, total student loan debts just last week surpassed total consumer credit card debts in the USA. Taxes on the richest Americans are lower than they have been in more than half a century, but they are so blinded by privilege and self-selected media that they are still trying to shift the burden even further on to the poor and middle class. The candidates for the Republican Party nomination to face Barack Obama for the Presidency in 2012 have spent the last few weeks trotting out tax plans which would lower taxes for the top 10% of earners and raise them on everybody else. Part of the problem is that most of the people in charge of the media outlets are themselves a part of the privileged 1%, and so they don't understand why their attempts to shape the narrative about the protests is not resonating with audiences.

Pushing Americans is a bad idea (so much easier to put on another baseball game or cooking show), and a deeply seated objection to state sponsored violence against their fellow citizens is one of the only things that will unify large sections of society. The political powder keg had been placed in lower Manhattan, just waiting for a spark. For OWS to have any effect at all in getting Americans to self-select media about them, Bloomberg and his police force had to ignite the fuse, and true to form on Sept. 24th they got careless playing with fire, as reported here by Lawrence O'Donnell of MSNBC:

Contrary to the usual script, this approach obviously did not make the OWS protest go away. Quite the opposite in fact, and now there are sympathy protests happening across the globe in dozens of countries and more than fifty major US cities. Smart local authorities have made room and tried to show solidarity with the protesters, assigning a few token officers to guard the protesters against potential crimes against each other (otherwise known as policing), and in those places everything is calm and business continues as usual. Panicky mayors in places like Boston and Oakland have not been so intelligent, attempting to evict protesters in the middle of the night by force, which only draws the hungry lenses of competitive media desperate for exclusive original content, especially if it involves violence (because they can't show sex on the news, yet). Both cities are now getting all the wrong kinds of attention, provoking anger from citizens and making tourists and convention planners reconsider plans to visit or locate conferences there. Needless to say, the odds of such mayors winning election to another term in office are dropping with each incident that they provoke. The costs to city budgets to constantly surround protesters with police are mounting, and with the arrested threatening to demand jury trials for all charges, the potential expense of the Bloomberg strategy is looking increasingly astronomical. The protests in New York, Boston and Oakland continue to grow, and show no more signs of stopping than do the more stable occupying populations in calm cities.

Even as I write this the Oakland Police are trying to stop protesters from retaking by day the city plaza that they lost to tear gas assault last night. More teargas, more clubs and arrests, more media coverage. Tomorrow Occupy Oakland will grow, the protesters will adapt and innovate, the police will be more fatigued (it is not easy beating on your neighbors day after day), their budget more depleted, and their reputation more tarnished. Soon they will begin to see a decline in citizen cooperation in policing other crimes, and other police departments will see their own efforts at community outreach undermined by the steady stream of brutality emanating from their misguided neighbors in Oakland. We can only hope that they too make their displeasure known to the skittish and scared Mayor Jean Quan. Apparently she never had any intention of running for re-election or any other elected office ever again. Too bad, just a couple of weeks ago she was marching arm in arm with these same protesters. Someone must have reminded her that she was privileged, and she didn't need to associate with poor people, just call for the police to remove them.

Over the winter, the protests in the calm cities will shrink to token occupations, largely symbolic and staffed in shifts, seeds for spring and summer protests in the lead up to November elections. Attempts to evict the tokens in panicky cities will result in full scale occupations that will draw the most committed activists from the calm cities sooner or later. Continued failure by the Republican Party to embrace the OWS message (or mimicry of Ron Paul's futile attempts to shift their focus onto the Federal Reserve instead of the private sector bankers), will result in very high voter registration and turnout from population demographics which were very favourable towards President Obama and fellow Democratic candidates in previous election cycles. Efforts at the State level to reduce registration rates and to exclude otherwise eligible voters through technicalities will only deepen the resolve of such persons to not only vote, but to vote against the Party that tried to deny them, and also to persuade others to do likewise. Smart politicians like Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren are already positioned firmly alongside the people and the grievances being voiced at OWS:

Only FoxNews and the financial networks (one of which is owned by Mayor Bloomberg after all) are still trying to mock the protesters, even going so far as to read copy claiming the police did not use flash grenades while showing pictures of riot police apparently firing flash grenades. Result: more protesters. Hundreds of videos of alleged police brutality continue to circulate, yet in spite of repeated claims by the police that protesters assaulted them first, threw bottles or stones, or otherwise provoked a violent response, I have yet to come across a single piece of video evidence to indicate even a single instance of such behaviour by the protesters. It would be truly remarkable if no such incidents occurred at any of the protest sites, but the fact that the sea of cameras seem to unerringly omit every instance of protester violence towards police boggles the mind. Journalists always dutifully report that the police claim to have been attacked, but none that I have heard can claim to have witnessed any of it themselves even if they didn't get it on camera. I have just received reports that Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has now entered the panicky column, and has begun forcible evictions from parks in that city. This after announcing on Oct. 17th that protesters could stay for at least three more weeks. We can therefore expect lots more protesters and a new mayor in Atlanta's future. If the nation's police departments don't make it clear to the politicians soon that they will not be used as weapons against the very citizens that they are sworn to protect, then we can expect a lot of new Police Commissioners and Chiefs in the wake of the next election as well.

Occupation has become the dominant tactic for peaceful protesters worldwide, especially those who are young, healthy and unemployed. They literally don't have anywhere else to be, nothing "better" to do, or anything to "go back to." The only way to get them to stop will be to put them to work doing something productive at wages that will allow them to live a middle class lifestyle and retire in relative comfort and security in their old age. That can't happen for as long as the privileged 1% are permitted to claim half of all income with impunity. That can't happen for as long as the fiction persists that anyone could possibly amass, let alone hold on to their wealth without the consent of the 99%. The 1% cannot win by attrition, new potential protesters are being born faster than the police can arrest the current ones. The 99% can theoretically keep this up for generations if necessary. The 1% cannot win by escalation, because the more resources put towards stopping the protests simply further reveals and reinforces the argument that the 1% is hoarding resources for their own benefit and co-opting public officials to do their bidding, thus convincing even more of the 99% to oppose them directly. The 1% cannot win by co-opting the protesters, because the 1% is exclusive by definition and cannot be expanded. They have become conspicuous through shameless self advancement at the expense of everyone else, and they cannot pretend to have wanted to bring the rest of us along with them, because they have already accepted rewards obviously out of proportion to any conceivable individual contribution of value to the whole. The 1% cannot win by controlling the message in the broadcast or print media, because there are too many camera phones and no way to effectively censor social media. The 1% should surrender now and cut their losses, drop the privileges, pay their fair share of progressive taxes towards the common good, and stop running for election to political office using their personal fortunes and a few billionaire donors. It is the only way to avoid spending the rest of their lives in their crowd-proof "panic rooms."

Authorship

The above post was written by our resident special contributor - L Yakima.

Zambian Economist encourages special contributions from leading thinkers on matters relevant to Zambia's national social, economic and political development. The purpose of these notes is to stimulate discussion and ensure logic and impartial critique plays a leading role in shaping public debate.

On Civil Religion

2011-10-27T11:05:00.002+01:00

The Jubilee Centre in Ndola puts out very interesting perspectives on social justice, politics, economics and religion. We will be sharing some of their thoughts going forward. In the latest piece Lawrence Temfwe questions whether the latest presidential pronouncement will reinforce "civil religion" at the expense of true spirituality.

Ruling with Biblical Principles, Lawrence Temfwe, Jubilee Centre Zambia, Commentary :

Did evangelical Christians, many of whom were afraid he would nullify the Christian Nation clause, breathe a sigh of relief when President Michael Sata stated he will rule the country by biblical principles? Or did they ask what did he meant? After all, the political power of using religious language like “praying for the peace of the nation” is frequently employed to draw people together for a common cause. But Christianity can also be a powerful force to drive people apart. One only needs to look at South Africa during apartheid to see how evangelical Christians were in a crisis of faith as one section was being oppressed and exploited by another section of the same faith.

To put President Sata’s statement in perspective we need to look at the recent history of our young nation. In 1991, the MMD government, through its first President, the late Fredrick Chiluba, identified itself with the political agenda of Evangelical Christians by declaring Zambia a “Christian Nation”. Since 1991, a number of influential Evangelical leaders have been active participants in Zambian politics - particularly in the MMD, and they have focused much of their attention on the issue of a Christian Nation. In their zeal to maintain the Christian Nation clause some of these leaders chose to close their eyes to the moral disregards and outrageous deeds of political leaders. Even though most Christians knew the MMD kept the clause to ensure the support of the church and not out of a sincere conviction that Jesus is Lord, they were willing to support the MMD because they believed it was the only party who would sustain the clause.

Like President Chiluba, President Sata’s declaration, to put his Christian faith into action as he conducts the affairs of the nation, is grounded on his personal testimony and Christian conviction. Is the church going to Christianize the Patriotic Front because of this declaration? In 1998, the Catholic Commission for Peace and Justice contended that the government failed to achieve national consensus in support of the Christian Nation declaration. Will they challenge President Sata in the same way? Will evangelical and charismatic church leaders, who supported President Chiluba’s approach as being the best way to ensure the term “Christian Nation” is sustained, agree with President Sata’s declaration?

One way to measure the benefit of the Christian Nation declaration is to ask whether the church has grown numerically and spiritually since the declaration was made. Have we become a nation known for justice, opportunity for the poor, the fatherless, the widows and the aliens? Have we experienced a revival that is causing bars to be closed, AIDS to be reduced, and the elimination of corruption? Has our Christianity become more important in our daily lives or has it become just another aspect of our culture similar to Kuomboka, Umutomboka, witchdoctors, and the price of mealie meal?

The church must not reinforce the impression that Christianity is primarily a civil religion. Civil Christianity is mostly concerned with praying at political functions, displaying religious symbols on national monuments, and engaging politicians on social issues. As Christian leaders we are better to spend our time and energy doing authentic Kingdom work like building faith communities focused on growing disciples-President Sata included. If we “keep the main thing the main thing” – making disciples – we will see individuals and socio-political systems transformed in deeper and more lasting ways than affirming a Christian Nation could ever accomplish.

The Sata Presidency : An Opportunity for Change (Guest Blog)

2011-10-26T22:34:00.000+01:00

President Michael Sata can be compared to former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. They both must think they are the unluckiest politicians ever. Lula lost presidential elections in 1994 and 1998, against a far more established opponent in Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Likewise in 2008 Sata lost elections against a well established MMD the late Mwanawasa. In 2002 Lula finally secured his goal of winning the presidency and there were rumblings, especially from the markets, that he would steer Brazil onto an economic path to destruction. This year 2011, Sata has secured the presidency against Amalgamated Bank of South Africa (ABSA) Capital, Africa strategist Ridfle Markus who predicted that Zambia will lose investment if Patriotic Front (PF) wins the elections.

Eight years on, as Lula bowed out office on 1 January 2011, Brazil is now the fastest growing economy in Latin America with a stronger emerging middle class while the USA middle class has shrunk. As a matter of fact all those Marco Polo buses you see in Zambia are assembled in Brazil. A study published in September by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a Rio-based policy group, found that some 29 million Brazilians had entered "the middle class" between 2003 and 2009, with average monthly incomes between 1,126 reais and 4,854 reais ($658-$2839; £417-£1797).

Both Sata and Lula are better known by their nicknames than their real names, Lula and King Cobra which both are the names of animals. They both have an average education one is metal worker while the other one is a former police constable and rail way man. They are both from humble backgrounds and have a great gift to connect and relate to common people and people feel comfortable in their presence. Additionally you are both charismatic leaders.

Besides a set of personal gifts, emotional intelligence towards ordinary people, personal charm and smart political instincts, Lula’s genius lied in surrounding himself with the best political advisor and economic advisor who both had independent and original minds from Lula. Lula’s economic advisor is responsible for designing the economic system that both attracted foreign investors and also the Bolsa Familia a program that lifted millions of poor Brazilians out of poverty. Thus, for Sata to succeed he should find the best economic and political advisors. A genius political advisor will help Sata to connect with the masses and restore pride in the country. The best and brightest economic advisor will help Sata to design sound economic policies that respect civil liberties, democracy and investment alike. Without national pride Sata’s political career like that of KK, Chiluba, Levy and now Rupiah will have a fatal ending.

Here are five areas if well developed will set Sata’s political career apart from others.

Economy: Mobilisation of Zambians and children of Zambians born from foreign nationals in Diaspora regarded as "middle class "to invest back in Zambia by making dual citizenship a matter of urgency.

Resources: Development of commercial agriculture particularly top key foodstuffs including sugar, poultry, rice and beef, and other commodities much in demand by countries in Africa. Zambia should reach out to Israel for agricultural technology as well help in discovering oil.

Environment: The size of our fresh water lakes should make fishing a viable economic sector that has largely been underdeveloped. Developing land for agriculture should boost Zambia’s economic credential after all Soya beans is Brazil’s valuable export.

Political voice: There's need for Mr Sata to be a genuine president for all people rather than just PF. Valuable time (47 years) has been wasted through political bickering instead of inspiring all Zambians to work harder to deal with modern day challenges. No one is interested in investing in a country where (MMD) culprits against civil liberties and threat to democracy like events in Mongu and Copper belt are yet to be held accountable.

Education: Creation of opportunities for Zambians to use their own talents and original qualities to positively impact others to be entrepreneurs. It is time to instill confidence within and outside Zambia to the masses that have been previously disgusted with mediocre politics and standard of living conditions. In addition, it is crucial to invest in technology and communication because of the major role these play in facilitating and supporting meaningful education and development in this global village.

Besides President Sata’s charismatic personality and nationwide mass following, he has luck on his side because he has a great opportunity to learn from the blunders of KK, Chiluba and Rupiah. Challenges define leaders. Rupiah squandered the chaos in Mongu from inspiring Zambians to define and articulate a fresh political vision. Rupiah was not only arrogant and myopic but he was also so consumed with winning elections that he stopped governing the country. As for President Sata if he capitalizes on economic and political diversity as source of strength, his political career will have a stellar ending with a legacy in the hearts of the next generation of Zambians.

Lula is sorely missed both within and outside Brazil, where as for President Sata his opportunity has just began. So far so good!

Author

Nsambila C Mboelala is a financial analyst based in Chicago, USA. He holds a MSc in Human Resources Management and MBA in Finance. He is originally from Mufulira, Copperbelt.

How do we promote inclusive growth?

2011-10-25T04:00:00.000+01:00

One of the things is to make sure you have an inclusive financial system—a financial system that not only links to big businesses, but also to small and medium-sized enterprises; a microcredit system; and an inclusive financial system. If you are going to have growth that is widely shared, you also have to have an educational system that is inclusive, which means reaches both girls and boys; making sure that all the citizens, no matter what the income of the parents, are able to live up to their potential.

Joseph Stiglitz in an interview with IMF Survey Online.

The Role of Government in Independent Zambia (Guest Blog)

2011-10-24T12:23:00.000+01:00

We should be proud that at 47 years of age, our beloved country has continued to be a land of lasting peace and stability. We should, therefore, make an earnest effort to build on Dr. Kenneth D. Kaunda’s concept of “One Zambia, One Nation” in order to create a society in which political, ethnic, cultural, racial, and religious diversity is genuinely appreciated, tolerated and celebrated.

In this Press Release, I wish to share my views concerning the role of government in independent Zambia. In this endeavor, let us first briefly examine a point of view advocated by the founders of the free enterprise ideology, that a government should have very limited functions.

In their view, “That government is best which governs least.” Essentially, they advocated for a government whose functions are limited to the following: protecting private property, providing for public safety and security, enforcing business and other forms of contracts among individuals and/or institutions, inducing (rather than performing) commercial and industrial activities, and, among other things, facilitating the provision of quality education and health care.

There are, however, many factors which may lead to an increase in the functions of a country’s national government, such as the following: increases in the country’s population, an unprecedented number of demands by various interest groups for government involvement in addressing their needs, and, among other things, problems brought about by a multitude of human-induced and natural calamities.

There is no doubt that these and other factors can put pressure on a government to expand existing public services and facilities and/or to introduce new ones. Franklin D. Roosevelt, United States president between 1933 and 1945, must have had these and/or other similar kinds of factors in mind when he said: “As new conditions and problems arise beyond the power of men and women to meet as individuals, it becomes the duty of ... government[s] ... to find new remedies with which to meet them.”

Nevertheless, the proper governmental role in a free-market economy, as Michael E. Porter once advised in an article entitled “The Competitive Advantage of Nations,” which appeared in the Harvard Business Review of March-April 1990, should be that of serving as “a catalyst and challenger ... to encourage—or even push—companies to raise their aspirations and move to higher levels of competitive performance.”

42nd President of the United States of America, Mr. William J. Clinton, espoused this point of view in general terms when he stipulated his Administration’s desire in the State of the Union Address of January 27, 1998 thus: “[We need to] build a government that [functions as] ... a catalyst for new ideas, and, most of all, a government that gives ... people the tools they need to make the most of their own lives.”

In serving the business community and other segments of society as a “catalyst and challenger,” a government needs to provide adequately for various kinds of guarantees, inducements and essential services and facilities, such as the following:

1) A well‑developed transportation infrastructure and adequate transportation services to industrial, commercial, and residential areas to ease or facilitate the distribution of production inputs and finished products;

2) Adequate public services (including police protection, fire protection, public utilities, and decent housing), as well as telecommunications, educational, vocational, health, and recreational facilities;

3) Equitable sales, corporate, and other taxes, as well as tax concessions and inducements that are more attractive than those in alternative countries or regions which investors are likely to consider for investment;

4) Political and civic leaders who are fair and honest in their dealings with private business institutions, and stable economic policies (including a formal assurance against nationalisation and/or expropriation of privately owned business undertakings by the national government);

5) Political and civic leaders who are genuine and resolute in their fight against the scourge of corruption in governmental and non-governmental settings;

6) Less bureaucratic licensing, import, export, and other procedures, and adequate information about investment and marketing problems and opportunities in the various sectors of a country’s economy and in cross-border markets;

7) A system of justice that is fair, impartial and independent in both word and deed; and

8) A social safety net designed to adequately cater to the needs of economically disadvantaged members of society that is not subject to political meddling or manipulation.

These inducements, services, facilities, and guarantees, among a host of other things, can enable economic units, for example, to operate more efficiently and eventually deliver economic and social outputs to society at reasonable costs and prices.

As Alassane Ouattara (current president of Ivory Coast) once advised in an article entitled “Africa: An Agenda for the 21st Century,” which appeared in Volume 36/Number 1 of Finance and Development of March 1999, therefore, there is an urgent need for national leaders to re-define the roles of their governments away from direct involvement in commercial and industrial activities toward the provision of inducements, guarantees and essential public services and facilities to their primary stakeholders.

Given the many positive changes currently being introduced by the Patriotic Front administration, our beloved country seems to be destined for a brighter future. Together, we can realize the benefits of independence, democracy and economic liberalization, and we can succeed in our quest to create a more democratic, more peaceful, more prosperous, more egalitarian, and more environmentally sustainable society.

Author

Should the brain drain be encouraged?

2011-10-23T14:05:00.000+01:00

Yes, according to Charles Kenny. Letting medical professionals and other skilled workers from the developing world emigrate is a good deal for everyone. I would agree with his assessment. The key here it seems is the "counter-factual". Without the brain drain we would still see high unemployment and inefficient job matches. The brain drain in many ways represents more efficient matching of workers abroad who sometimes earn twice as much as they earn in their countries. Provided remittances and investment are encouraged, and that is critical, it represents a superior outcome to the status quo. The key therefore is on how governments in the developing world tap into the brain drain benefits - it should be seen as a positive opportunity rather than a negative constraint! Kenny helpfully pulls some studies that highlight these benefits. We have previously discussed this here, here and here. The question of the diaspora is not currently on the radar of the new government, but it should be. We shall write an policy essay on this in due course.

Doctors Without Borders, Charles Kenny, Foreign Policy, Commentary :

Immigration may be deeply unpopular with electorates throughout the developed world, but that hasn't deterred immigrants themselves: The foreign-born share of the population of high-income countries doubled between 1985 and 2005, to nearly 9 percent. And the percentage who were college graduates increased fourfold between 1975 and 2000. That's great news for the rich countries that benefit from their skills, of course. But as it turns out, it is also great news for the poor countries the migrants leave behind.

It is hard to find a more confused discussion than that surrounding brain drain. Opposition to unskilled migration is usually based on perceived self-interest, the threat of stolen jobs -- a misguided fear, but at least a rational one. But certain well-meaning Westerners call for immigration restrictions on educated workers from the developing world for the opposite reason: If you let them leave, they'll abandon their home countries to poverty and deprivation. In 2008, the respected medical journal The Lancet carried an editorial on the medical brain drain of doctors and nurses from low- to high-income economies, complaining that "richer countries can no longer be allowed to exp[l]oit and plunder the future of resource-poor nations"; the same issue carried an op-ed calling for those who recruited African workers abroad to be sent to the International Criminal Court. (Never mind that the ability to leave the country of one's citizenship is considered a human right by the United Nations.) As a result of such thinking, Britain's National Health Service has a code of practice that bans recruitment from 150 developing countries, and there have been calls for something similar in the United States.

Certainly, most skilled migrants make more money abroad than they would at home. John Gibson at the University of Waikato and David McKenzie of the World Bank document salary increases ranging from $40,000 to $60,000 a year for skilled emigrants from developing countries across a range of professions. But the money these workers make abroad doesn't stay there: The average Africa-trained member of the American Medical Association sends home $6,000 a year in remittances, often for two decades or longer. Indeed, remittances from immigrants are an incredibly powerful force for development in any number of African countries -- more than the amount of foreign aid to Ivory Coast, triple that given to Togo, quadruple that to Nigeria, and nearly six times the aid to Mauritius. And the money is put to good use. One estimate from the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development suggests if you doubled remittances to a developing country, you could reduce poverty by nearly a third.

Perhaps more importantly, countries that swap people also swap goods, ideas, and investment. Doubling the number of people who have migrated between two countries raises trade between those countries by 10 percent. And if the number of skilled immigrants doubles in a recipient country, subsequent foreign direct investment to their countries of origin climbs 25 percent. William Kerr, an economist at Harvard Business School's Entrepreneurial Management Unit, even finds that migrants transfer back knowledge about increasing manufacturing efficiency -- so productivity increases in the home country as a result. Economists Hillel Rapoport at Bar-Ilan University and Frédéric Docquier at the Catholic University at Louvain report that about half of the Indian diaspora in Silicon Valley, which ran nearly one in 10 start-ups in the late 1990s, traveled back to India on business at least once a year. They were central to the creation of India's booming IT industry, which now employs around 2.5 million people. Another idea that appears to travel along with migration is democracy -- an International Monetary Fund study found that the more students a country sent for schooling in democratic countries, the more likely the home country was to become or remain a democracy.

But what about high-skilled migrants starving their home economies of vital human capital needed for development? Actually, Rapoport and Docquier conclude that the more high-skilled people leave low-income countries, the higher educational enrollments there climb. The opportunities presented by moving abroad spur people to stay in school and learn more. Surveying the brightest students in Tonga and Papua New Guinea, Gibson and McKenzie find that nearly all of them contemplated migration, and it led them to take on additional classes.

Similarly, Michael Clemens at the Center for Global Development finds no evidence that medical brain drain from developing countries leads to shortages of medical staff back home, probably because the opportunity to migrate is one of the things that attracts people to medical school in the first place. For years, nurses have left the Philippines in huge numbers to work abroad, but the country still has more nurses per person than Britain.

And finally, of course, lots of migrants return with valuable skills and contacts -- including many of those now working in the Indian IT industry. Economists William Easterly of New York University and Ariell Reshef of the University of Virginia carried out an informal survey of the entrepreneurs behind African global export successes and suggested that one factor many had in common was experience living abroad -- usually in the country they subsequently exported to.

All of this suggests those well-meaning folk in rich countries keen to put a travel ban on anyone from a developing country with a degree might want to reconsider their position. But it also contains a lesson for American economic policy. The United States benefits immensely from its talent imports -- immigrants account for over 60 percent of Ph. D. software engineers and more than half of its medical scientists, suggest McKenzie and Gibson. The country should do all that it can to ensure that inflow continues. And it could also do considerably better when it comes to talent exports. The most recent data suggest the United States had less than a third the number of high-skilled emigrants that Britain had -- despite having a population five times larger -- and half the number of Germany. If having a large high-skilled emigrant base in other countries is a powerful source of trade and investment links, the United States ought to be finding ways to encourage more of its best and brightest to spend some time elsewhere.

But in fact, the United States is heading in the opposite direction, on both sides of the trading equation. International applications to U.S. graduate schools only last year returned to their levels in the 2002-2003 academic year after a post-9/11 slump, a function of the stagnant economy and toughened immigration procedures. And at the other end of the degree process, there is growing concern about a "reverse brain drain," as more foreign graduates from U.S. schools decide to return home rather than find jobs in America -- again, often on account of byzantine immigration rules. Meanwhile, the U.S. House Appropriations Committee has proposed deep cuts to State Department international exchange program budgets that support the Fulbright program, among others. This shortsightedness regarding a program that promotes the talent trade in both directions isn't just bad news for the development prospects in Africa or Asia; it's likely to convert into a further erosion of America's long-term productivity.

Readers Weekly: Fiscal Decentralisation - Friend or Foe?

2011-10-22T16:21:00.002+01:00

The President recently announced a radical proposal for greater fiscal decentralisation, in form of automatic allocation of national revenues. This is something that is already tried in other African "our Government will also devise an appropriate formula for sharing national taxes collected at the centre within the jurisdiction of every local authority in order to strengthen the revenue base”.

Some have suggested that this is long overdue. Others have noted that such fiscal decentralisation may lead to greater corruption and inefficiency because of local elites and misaligned incentives. To delve deeper into this issue, we asked our readers via Facebook, website and email, whether more money at local level is the answer. The following is a selected sample of “properly identified" responses:

Martha Namusika Sepeto :

To me it sounds like decentralisation. May be a good direction if there are passionate people at the local level. Ova the past years, the central government has had challenges that have seen them unable to deliver. Local jurisdiction as powerful as it was in the late 80s will have well managed and efficient local governments. Remember, there was a time in history of our country when the council had better working conditions and well managed towns in terms of sanitation. On the other hand corruption in the councils is at alarming levels!

MaChi Mule's :

Yes - more money for councils may solve problems of our communities but what is need from workers in the local government is accountability, which can only happen through intensive monitoring & evaluation. This can be done by govt. in conjunction with community members, hence, the need for encouraging social capital and cohesion within communities.

Mathews Mwewa :

Looking back a bit, i have been tracking the President's statements. At one point he mentioned change of the governance system. From the current centralised sytem to a federal government system. This means that provinces will become semi autonomous states where they will run a budget and make investments based on local decisions. Obviously we have to be vigilant against corrupt practices. The current cleansing approach should be affected so as to give an example to those with corrupt minds. We need to clean up. Strengthening local governments is the way to go. Accountability is key.

Rolf Shenton :

I support PF mainly for their commitment to devolution of power because it is more difficult to steal public resources from people you know and whose respect, trust and cooperation you rely on. Zambia needs a big dose of patriotism if the free- fall plunder of common natural capital is to be stopped. Corruption has spread due to the unequal application of justice by the state with individuals so often getting away with plunder and worse. .... Underlying all this, the fundamental question therefore is whether Zambia can afford to continue following "capitalism's" culture of rewarding unbridled individual wealth acquisition with status and power above age-old universal values that put community interests first. Hehe! I must sound like a communist to some of you but I'm convinced the same question is at the core of the global financial crisis! It come down to good stewardship of the planet.

Kunda MK :

This is a step in the right direction. Decentralization and empowerment of the local councils does not just deal with jurisdiction matters only but also financial independence of the local government. Revenue sources of the most councils were over taken by party politics. The separation of councils from political cadres. Now with this pronouncements and using local revenue to develop and provide local government services. Increased funding, from central government, each council would be required to submit a budget for the major projects and their deficit. This is how most local agencies can be sustained. Accountability and strict audit would ensure that revenue are applied to pertinent projects and curb corruption. The PF want to go ahead and implement even minor local administration at the village and ward level. This is a welcome move.

Masuka M :

Zambia needs a good decentralisation framework. We actually already have a very good one, it has just never been implemented since it was put together in 2006/7. So, what has been proposed is not anything new. What the President mentioned in his speech sounds similar to the intergovernmental fiscal relations policy that pertains in South Africa. This is a great system of non-partisan and non-tribal equitable distribution of resources based on poverty levels and population.

Steven Putter :

The way i see it is that we are heading for participatory democracy, great for the future of Zambia, the community forums or governing bodies will need some funds, but mostly capacity building is required, communication capability being the first and foremost, a serious assessment of communication should be done for this including the educational system.

Model Macha (Guest Blog)

2011-10-21T23:49:00.000+01:00

Macha is a town in central Zambia. I won't bother to describe the basic community layout as the citizens have already done that :

The Macha community is doing an exemplary job of describing what is desirable about life in the area, so much so that many people migrate to Macha from all over to work, study and live their lives in the quiet rural atmosphere:

Macha is clearly doing a lot of things right, or else people would not be flocking to their resources in such numbers or speak so highly of life in their community. Variations on the themes embraced by these citizen activists present an excellent template for many other such communities around the country. However, in spite of all that they have done with the resources at their disposal, Macha is still a small rural farming community without major sources of industrial employment. Do not read this article and decide to move to Macha! Instead learn how Macha has made things better for its residents through careful planning and collective implementation of projects towards common goals. Overwhelming this one town with migrants faster than they can absorb them will only stunt their growth before it can fully blossom. The goal should be to reproduce their success in other rural communities -- they are already facing growing pains in crucial life supporting services. Here again we don't have to guess at which aspects of growth that the community needs help with because they are already telling us exactly what the biggest problems are:

So for Christabel, Lulu C., Danny and the rest of you Macha residents, here are some information resources that might help you and others facing similar problems:

Firstly, the videos really, really help, I cannot emphasize this enough! Please keep making videos so that we can see the specifics of what you deal with every day, and may by now take for granted as being present, even if it is known not to be ideal. Show us as many angles on structures or geographical features as possible, and people or standardised objects in the picture can help to establish scale, but giving actual measured dimensions or splicing in diagrams will do the trick even better (just a few seconds is fine, we can pause the video and capture still images therefrom). Keep narrating the videos too, because what faraway people like me might see could be relevant, but what bothers you every day is definitely relevant! Please don't be embarrassed to say that there are problems, it comes as no surprise to any audience that cares enough to listen in the first place. I think I can speak for the entire ZE community when I say that you have an incredible amount of hard work to be proud of, and even though you are doing these things for yourselves, you are also setting a high bar for other Zambian communities to model their own efforts against. I cannot think of words to convey the respect and admiration that I feel when I think of all that you have accomplished so far, and all that you will achieve in days to come, inevitably, just perhaps somewhat faster with a bit of help. On this end of the wire, all too often we must be general for lack of specifics, and only people like yourselves can cure our ignorance. I don't know if I am the best person to help you, but I will sure try!

Request #1: Better toilets in more places. For relatively low density rural and peri-urban communities like Macha throughout Zambia, I would highly recommend downloading the free book "Toilets That Make Compost: Low-cost, sanitary toilets that produce valuable compost for crops in an African context" from EcoSanRes. Detailed instructions with diagrams and pictures all tailored to your regional crops and weather patterns, multiple designs and material requirements to serve specific needs, hopefully more than you need to know about building and maintaining sustainable rural latrines that won't put added pressure on already strained water supplies.

Request #2: More boreholes and pumps to handle the growing population and take some load off of the local open reservoirs, and to make access to water more convenient and less time consuming. Siting boreholes in places where they will not run dry will benefit from careful planning and study, this paper helps to outline the types of data that can prove valuable: The benefits of a scientific approach to sustainable development of groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa [PDF 356KB]. This is a situation where traditional knowledge about where the underground geology brings water naturally closer to the surface at various points during the season can be especially valuable, so interview your local seniors to point the scientists to the most likely borehole sites and save time and money. Efforts upstream towards Mukosivumba and Naliluba along the lines described in the ZE Boreholes and Groundwater Recharging blog will help to raise the water table around Macha and provide more water from any given borehole. Likewise communities downstream will benefit from your efforts along similar lines.

Request #3: Safe drinking water for both the town and surrounding farm families. Treating water to be safe for human consumption without the cost and effort of boiling is tougher, and usually involves some sort of ongoing expense. Given the scale of the settlement and generally dispersed surrounding farm populations, modular water purification is likely to be more effective than a centralised system. This may change if/when Macha determines that water resources are sufficient to enable piping into individual homes, however at this time it sounds to me like the priority is clean, not necessarily convenient. Recent advances in bromine (one step larger in the same column on the periodic table with chlorine), chemistry may provide a reasonably low cost (US$0.003-4 per liter) household level purification with user friendly, relatively error-proof systems such as those offered by DelAgua (a company that is eager to expand its business in the region), can already be purchased. However, recognizing Macha's pioneering spirit, here is some of the science underlying the consumer product, so that different scales and methods of modern bromine chemical water treatment can be compared to whatever else you might be considering going forward.

Request #4: Improving water sourced from the local reservoir. From my understanding, the problem with the reservoir behind the check dam is primarily about depletion (addressed in part at both supply and demand ends of the equation by the borehole and groundwater discussion above), and water quality (assumed to be unsafe at the tap shown, addressed in part above for drinking, but a cleaner reservoir can only help matters). Testing the water upstream, in, and below the reservoir to determine what compounds and chemicals besides pure H2O are present will help to mitigate the latter problem at the source. I should note that totally pure water is not good for you, water seems to enjoy the company of a certain amount of minerals like calcium, and if they are not present in the water that you drink, then that water will seek to drain your bones of their calcium supplies to satisfy its own inherent chemical desires (this is a major hurdle for desalination plants and other distilling methods, and usually involves relatively expensive replenishment of mineral contents after purification). The goal is water that contains just enough minerals, without excesses or pollutants that can build up to harmful levels in the body over time. Depending on what is present and undesirable, a wide variety of mitigation methods can likely be attempted, and we will try to help you to narrow down what will be most cost effective and culturally acceptable to your community.

Some of the plants that will grow in and around fresh water reservoirs are actually beneficial for the water quality, depending on the specific life cycle of that species. Runoff of excess chemical fertilisers may also be exacerbating the situation, however probably better that these nutrients are being taken in by plant life than by the humans drawing that water for their own consumption. Farm plots close to the reservoir or along the upstream line of surface water runoff should be relocated or at least buffered from direct inflow to the reservoir supply. Manure can have similar effects on abnormal algal blooms or crowding vegetation. When possible, cattle should be watered immediately below the level of the dam, not directly from the reservoir. Given the relatively porous nature of the check dam and surrounding terrain, there should be reasonable quantities of water actually cleaner than in the reservoir available for cattle at or close to the surface just a few meters downstream (avoid eroding the base of the actual structure, make a pool a fair way down, prepare the banks and access pathways to handle repeated passage, and try to make sure that some form of natural filtration of that water occurs before it gets to another reservoir or cattle watering point so as to help quarantine any disease pathogens, gravel or sand and aquatic plants that draw substance out of the water rather than soil).

I am sure that others in the ZE readership will be able to contribute additional useful information and ideas to your efforts to make your corner of Zambia a better place to live, the more so with each effort that you make to inform the world about the specifics of your situation and problems. I look forward to spreading the fruits of your success to communities in need of answers to problems that Macha has been successfully grappling with for years. With the new government policy of decentralisation of funds and decision making powers, local communities will have many choices to make and priorities to set for themselves. I encourage them to use innovative model towns like Macha and the available expertise of the global diaspora to help to identify best practices, solve local problems and plan for the future.

Authorship

The above post was written by our resident special contributor - L Yakima.

[For more on Community Organising in Macha, visit http://www.machaworks.org/en/what-does-macha-works-do.html]

Struggling to compete

2011-10-20T05:00:00.000+01:00

“Business has not been favourable, because of the stiff competition from the phones being dumped on the market from China which are heavily subsided. This has resulted in us failing to fully penetrate the local market"

Mobile phone assembling plant M-Tech chairperson Mohamed Seedat says the increasing number of imported mobile phones on the market has impacted negatively on the firm’s growth. M-Tech mobile handsets are in the range K140,000 - K150,000 but the market is flooded with cheaper handsets with some costing as less as K50,000. Little surprise therefore that Mr Seedata is calling on Government to come up with "policies that will protect the local industries". A particular problem he has flagged up is the tendency for "handsets allegedly being imported duty-free".

I understand his argument but this would be the wrong industry to impose restrictions on. Low costs of communication regardless of how such costs are driven down is good for country because they drive down transaction costs and improve market discovery especially in rural areas. We need more cheap mobiles. There's really no point having local industries which are not built on lasting or unique advantages.

Barriers to Justice (Crowded Prisons), 3rd Edition

2011-10-19T22:30:00.001+01:00

More revelations from Zambia Prison Service on the poor state of our prisons - this time lifting the veil on Eastern Province :

The Zambia Prisons Service has bemoaned the overcrowding in all the prisons centres in Eastern Province. Acting prisons regional commanding officer Robert Mwale said the prisons institutions in the province were highly overcrowded, the situation he said making the operations of the institutions difficult.....He said Namuseche Prisons in Chipata which was built during the colonial era was meant to accommodate 250 inmates but by 06:00 hours yesterday it had a total of 665 inmates....Katete Prisons which was expected to house 50 inmates but currently a total of 199 inmates, while Petauke Prison which is expected to accommodate 50 inmates but currently has a total of 271 inmates...Nyimba Prison was expected to accommodate 65 inmates but this time has 182 while Lundazi Prison by yesterday had a total of 188 inmates instead of the required 58....

Superintendent Mwale also complained that it was taking too long for the courts to dispose off some of the cases of the detainees which he said had also greatly the contributed overcrowding in prisons centres across the province."A number of suspects have had their cases dragging in court for a long time, some have not been appearing for trial since 2009 in order to the court to determine their cases," he said.

We have previously touched on this issue here and here. The obvious answer is more prison capacity, but also we need much broader reforms to ensure that only those who need to be in prison should go to prison. Nearly 1 in 3 people in prison are there on remand .

Is more money to councils the answer to local problems?

2011-10-18T08:46:00.001+01:00

President Michael Sata recently made a rather radical proposal that has not garnered much debate :

"OUR GOVERNMENT WILL ALSO DEVISE AN APPROPRIATE FORMULA FOR SHARING NATIONAL TAXES COLLECTED AT THE CENTRE WITHIN THE JURISDICTION OF EVERY LOCAL AUTHORITY IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN THEIR REVENUE BASE".

This could be quite revolutionary, depending on the formula devised. But it also raises big questions in relation to the effectiveness of the local councils to handle greater revenue. There are issues around local politics and the scourge of corruption.

What is your view on this proposal? How should national revenues be divided? What dangers need to avoided, and how?

A sample of responses from "properly identified persons" will be published under our Readers Weekly column..

Those on Facebook can leave their comments here.

Boreholes and Groundwater Recharging (Guest Blog)

2011-10-16T01:00:00.000+01:00

Every year more and more boreholes are being dug around the country to extend groundwater access to areas previously reliant on seasonal or distant surface water sources. This is a very good thing, but it is important to remember that groundwater is only a reflection of surface absorption further uphill. Every drop that comes up out of a well first fell as rain and was absorbed into the soil before descending to a layer of clay or rock that carries it laterally across the landscape or enables it to pool underground into aquifers. When the borehole creates an empty space in the saturated layer of earth, then the water naturally flows in to fill the available space up to the level of the rest of the underground water. The only way to keep all of these new boreholes viable is to recharge the groundwater each year at the highest elevations possible within each watershed, and not to take out more than gets filtered in at the top [1]. Zambia's coastal neighbors may be able to believe in water that comes from rivers or springs from the ground, but that luxury is not available at the top of the watershed, and we know that much of the water in their rivers and springs is really Zambian rain.

The basic concept in both groundwater recharging and flood mitigation is to slow the progress of rainwater across the landscape and down slope. There are several things that Zambians can do to encourage this process, which will have the added benefit of reducing the impact and severity of annual floods over time. This is by no means an exhaustive treatment of the subject, but floods are an annual fact of life, and the calendar is rolling around that way again. Encouraging surface absorption of rainwater can go against our instincts, after all from an animal perspective only surface water is accessible, that which seeps away under the ground appears to be lost forever. On the other hand, when flood waters rise, we naturally want the excess to move away downstream as quickly as possible once local reservoirs are topped up, and development along waterways causes us to discourage rivers from exceeding their banks or changing course. Urban sprawl can cause us to forget that a seasonal wetland which is dry for most of the year is still a wetland, which absorbs large quantities of rainwater (place a damp sponge and a dry sponge under a tap and observe the result), and expensive to replace with man-made systems from a water management perspective [2].

One way to assist this process is with small "seepage" dams arranged in upstream canyons which flood during rains but are dry for much of the year. Such dams are of low height with gentle slopes, more like speed bumps than walls, and designed to be smoothly overtopped by water levels above their capacity. The lowest portions extend below the level of the canyon floor and are composed of porous materials such as gravel stabilised by boulders and rock shards. The upper portion can be composed of compacted earth or other less absorbent material, and encouraging deep rooting plant growth can help reduce erosion of the structure over time. When the peak of the flood falls below the level of the dam, the continued inflow from uphill will pool behind it and seep through the gravel and stones underneath where much will be absorbed before the remainder returns to the surface to flow on down the hill to the next seepage dam. The pool eventually runs dry when the last of the water seeps underneath. Experience with such structures in rural India have both replenished wells that were running dry and are also causing seasonal streams to continue running for months longer, easing seasonal water shortages and strengthening local ecosystems. Closer to farmland or habitation, such dams can be scaled up into "check" dams that retain small reservoirs behind them while allowing the bulk of the flood to pass over them [3].

For farmers with mildly sloping plots, "Keyline" trench systems apply a similar seepage model of groundwater charging which can both absorb a significant portion of local heavy rainfall as well as provide reasonably efficient longer term irrigation when combined with an upstream reservoir.[4] Cover cropping and no-till planting methods can help to reduce topsoil erosion, as well as improving soil health and reducing weeds. This will also significantly increase the percentage of organic matter in the content of the topsoil with each season which in turn dramatically increases the moisture retention of the soil itself, thus increasing the effectiveness of irrigation in general.[5] Livestock pasturage should be rotated regularly, before patches of bare soil become exposed to rain and other elements. Goats and other animals which will eat plant roots as well as the top greens should be restrained from doing so unless the plants are known weeds or invasive species. Cattle wades and watering from natural sources should be done with advance planning to issues of erosion, defoliation and soil compaction along stream banks, and water contamination issues.[6]

Seepage can also be applied in urban areas to supplement the ordinary surface drainage system. First, some or all of the water collected by roof gutters can be diverted into storage tanks, or into gravel beds or landscape foliage to encourage absorption, or even temporarily collected in surface pools for release after the drainage system demand has peaked. Large non-porous surfaces such as parking lots are generally designed for safety and comfort reasons to drain rapidly, however a simple trench along the downhill side of the lot filled to the top with gravel and stones can help mitigate both the rate and amount of rainfall the lot contributes to the drainage system (a deeper and/or wider trench adds surface area and storage volume thus increasing mitigation and absorption; coarser gravel or stones at the bottom will leave more spaces for water; finer gravel at the surface will trap less loose garbage and debris). Such trenches can also accommodate some plants or trees, and can be appropriate, even decorative for city parks, squares, and marketplaces. These steps will also help protect urban streams from degradation when combined with a comprehensive but distributed low-impact water catchment design.[7]

Watershed boundaries are at the high points, where adjacent drops of rainwater flow downhill in opposite directions. Traditional political boundaries are often drawn through the centre of watersheds, often making use of rivers themselves as boundary lines between constituencies and jurisdictions. Water is becoming an increasingly scarce and contentious resource both globally and regionally, and it helps when all the people within a given watershed are working together, living in the same "polder" as the Dutch who live below sea level behind dikes call it. When the flood alarms ring, it doesn't matter if you are rich or poor, everyone inside the polder will die together if the dikes fail, so they all contribute to maintaining them and it brings them together as a community. As Zambia undertakes its current governmental and Constitutional restructuring process, some thought towards realignment of political boundaries to account for geographical natural resource distribution may serve to reduce future conflict and confusion over watershed boundaries as well as access to and control over water resources. From the water management perspective, drawing boundaries along ridges makes far more sense than dividing river valleys down the middle.

Authorship

The above post was written by our resident special contributor - L Yakima.

Some Further Readings and Sources:

[1] "Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions", B. R. Scanlon et al., Hydrological Processes 20, 3335–3370 (2006) (1.2MB)

[2] "The value of wetlands: importance of scale and landscape setting", William J. Mitsch & James G. Gosselink, Ecological Economics 35 (2000) 25–33 (176KB)

[3] "The Check-Dam Route to Mitigate India's Water Shortages", Govindasamy Agoramoorthy, Sunita Chaudhary & Minna J. Hsu', Natural Resources Journal [Vol. 48, pp. 565-583]: (2.0MB)

[4] Yeomans Keyline Designs, Australia, [HT: MrK]: (commercial website)

[5] "Farming Systems Trial 30-Year Final Report", Rodale Institute (1.3MB)

[6] "Erosion Control on Watersheds and Pond Embankments", Alabama Aquaculture Best Management Practice [BMP No. 3](113KB)

[7]"Stream restoration in urban catchments through redesigning stormwater systems: looking to the catchment to save the stream", Christopher J. Walsh et al., J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc., 2005, 24(3):690–705: (578KB)

Readers Weekly : A Mandatory National Youth Service?

2011-10-15T20:26:00.001+01:00

The Government recently suggested that it was considering making national service training for youths mandatory. According to Defence Minister GBM, “National service can also be used as skills centres and hopefully this will turn round the situation of high levels of unemployment among the youth in the country". The President in his speech to Parliament also hinted that this may the solution to tackling youth employment. Stopping short of endorsing a mandatory scheme, he announced that "the PF government will among other things enhance the capacity of the Zambian national service by transforming it into the Zambia Youth Training Service, so that the various camps throughout the country are turned into non-military skills training centres". Some have called it “a well thought proposal” which would address the youths “who are languishing on the streets”.

To delve deeper into this issue, we asked our readers via our Facebook , website and email, whether the Government is right to consider a mandatory National Youth Service. We had some of the most illuminating responses to date (including alternative detailed models). The following is but a small glimpse of the most interesting “properly identified" responses :

Lighton Phiri :

Brilliant idea! An educated guess! It sure beats the idea of having school leavers wait for at least a year before they can get into versity of college. Not quite sure if things have changed, but i graduated in December 2001 and had to wait until 2003 to get into university. I was fortunate enough to get a job six months after finishing, but the majority of my peers succumbed to alcohol, marijuana and other elicit activities in the process. I should mention here that a number of them died as a result. I know of A-level programmes that were introduced many years ago, but i doubt they have yielded any tangible benefits.

Mwiya Musokotwane :

Loads of countries have mandatory military training, but I don't think its practical. It would in no way solve the issue of unemployment. National service is a short term solution. Sure kids would have a couple months of military training and learn new skills, but then after they would simply face unemployment yet again. So yes its a good distraction from delinquency- but not a solution to unemployment. So should it be optional? I don't see any reason why not. Should it be mandatory? No. The unemployment problem can only be solved by encouraging entrepreneurship. What Zambia needs is more enterprising people starting quality businesses. And some of Zambia's already existing large businesses need to be more aggressive than they currently are. Fix Zambia's enterprise problems and you'll fix the unemployment problem.

Kay Love :

No, I do not agree that Zambia should introduce Mandatory National Service for the youths because mandatory is force. Considering force which is a mass per unit area, I strongly think that just a mere National Service would be very beneficial if the youths join with their consent because force is another form of violence. Yes, [the benefits of] national service can outweigh the costs. Moreover, that will create jobs, encourage the youths to participate in the disciplining of their well being as well as preparing them to be involved in political system of our country. It will be beneficial because youths will become independent. This terminates the burden away from parents who have larger families to support. The [best] way [is] to let youths to make up their choices and that is having freedom and democracy...

Mweemba Mwiinde :

National Service will not in any way solve the Youth Employment problem. On its own, it's a cost without any guarantee of any returns on the money to be invested. The government should instead make that money available for entrepreneurship. As it is, we have youths running very profitable ventures but they unfortunately cannot access funds to increase their capital. If these businesses minded youths are allowed to grow they will become employers. We shouldn't go back to those dark years of National Service. Much as we love the PF, we cannot just blindly agree on anything they propose.

Nchindika Nankolongo :

This is a great idea. Projects and businesses are not about how much you have as capital, it’s about having ideas on how to grow the little money you have. Most people have pointed out the advantages: discipline, skills being developed etc. This will combat the high levels of unemployment because those skills can be used for starting a self-business, that’s employment. Talking of costs, while the skills taught vary [to include] farming, tailoring, sports, carpentry and plumbing, end-products should be sold to the markets at large. I bet that will give the national service an income to survive on. The service can be self-financed. All they have to do is look for people with the right skills to tutor and section the youths into departments of their interest. It’s a very possible and good project for the youth and nation at large in that the youth gain their skills at a nil cost and the nation won't have to depend on imports.

Izai-zai Yikona :

National service is a good idea. Mandatory for a period. Those days it was 18 months. The people I know who went to national service in the seventies are very switched on individuals…It promotes self-discipline and focus, and though someone may say it does not solve the problem of unemployment, I'd say not completely, but it fills our streets with more disciplined and more skilful youth who though un-employed can do something private and beneficial (for themselves and society) with their skills, like fix a car or make and mend furniture, as opposed to having absolutely no skill at all, which leaves only the option of illegal and often destructive activity. In these centres there can be industry and agricultural production as well, which could create revenue to make these institutions either self-sustaining or profitable to the sponsor (government). Just as it is true that opportunities are scarce, it is also true that there are many who are lazy and complacent and have become used to getting away with it, just waiting for someone else to do it so that they can beg, crying about how hard it is. The benefits of having national service (done properly) beat by far the current condition, and would go a long way also in correcting the mentality towards contributing towards the collective. This is what I think.

Chilumba Ngosa :

My proposal to this effect will be to establish a Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) particularly to sit either under Ministry of Commerce or more importantly under Education. Zambia has not fully tapped into this and there could be a lot of talented young boys and girls out there who have great talent but not been recognised. JETS at one point had a sense of direction but because of no political will to fund R&D, it seems to have died a natural death. Once this is established, a well thought through plan can be ascertained and every element to do with youth development will be properly streamlined as opposed to mumble jumbled up type of approach. We have already existing rewarding models like Don Bosco project, so this is something that can easily be amplified at National level, especially that Decentralisation will be implemented soon at sub district levels. Decentralisation will help provide alot of answers to some of these long pending problems.

K Musanga :

National Service is a good move and should for citizens who have the fitness, health, and also willing to do so. The High school recruitment [is a] good target because many young people are seeking a direction and vision for their lives. Basic military training would be useful but engage also in emergency, disaster and business skill. The skill learned in ZNS was what many people in my father's generation ended up using such skills for career advancement and development Increase open recruitment and offer more incentives such as tuition assistance, skills training, especially in vocational related field. Engage the youths in national development, community projects and infrastructure. Do I support increased ZNC? Yes…but may be optional but not mandatory. Ages 18-30 may be a good age to promote and encourage youths in within this category but offer the cons and pros to the candidates before they sign on.

What did President Sata talk about today ?

2011-10-14T18:55:00.000+01:00

The answer is in the word cloud :